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Cambio climático. cambio climático. Las oscilaciones multidecadales del Atlántico y el Pacífico y las temperaturas
Byron A Steinman1, Michael E Mann2, Sonya K Miller2
1Large Lakes Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, USA. bsteinma@d.umn.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 28, 2015
Resumen
El calentamiento global El calentamiento global.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
- Ciencias de la atmósfera Ciencias atmosféricas.
Sus antecedentes:
- La reciente desaceleración del calentamiento global ha planteado dudas sobre la confiabilidad de los modelos climáticos.
- Existe un debate sobre si la desaceleración se debe a la variabilidad interna o al forzamiento externo.
- La variabilidad interna en los sistemas climáticos puede influir en las tendencias de la temperatura global.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar las causas de la reciente desaceleración del calentamiento global.
- Cuantificar las funciones de la Oscilación Multidecadal del Atlántico (AMO) y la Oscilación Multidecadal del Pacífico (PMO) en la variabilidad de la temperatura.
- Para evaluar la confiabilidad de las proyecciones de modelos climáticos.
Principales métodos:
- Aplicó un enfoque semi-empírico que combinaba observaciones climáticas y simulaciones de modelos.
- Variabilidad multidecadal interna estimada basada en el Atlántico y el Pacífico (AMO y PMO).
- Se analizó la contribución de AMO y PMO a las temperaturas medias del hemisferio norte.
Principales resultados:
- AMO y PMO explican una parte significativa de la variabilidad interna en las temperaturas del hemisferio norte.
- Se observó un pico positivo modesto en AMO y una tendencia negativa en PMO.
- La competencia entre AMO y PMO probablemente causó la reciente desaceleración del calentamiento o "falsa pausa".
Conclusiones:
- La variabilidad interna multidecadal, específicamente AMO y PMO, influye significativamente en las tendencias de la temperatura global.
- La reciente desaceleración del calentamiento es en gran medida atribuible a la variabilidad natural del clima.
- Los hallazgos destacan la importancia de considerar la variabilidad interna en las proyecciones climáticas.
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