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Determinación observacional del forzamiento radiativo superficial por CO2 desde 2000 hasta 2010

D R Feldman¹, W D Collins², P J Gero³

¹Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA.

|March 4, 2015

Resumen

Los datos de observación confirman que el aumento de los niveles de dióxido de carbono (CO2) atmosférico aumenta directamente el forzamiento radiativo superficial. Esta evidencia empírica valida las predicciones del efecto invernadero y cuantifica el CO2.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima Ciencias del clima
Física de la atmósfera Física de la atmósfera
Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre

Sus antecedentes:

El impacto climático de los gases de efecto invernadero generalmente se evalúa a través del forzamiento radiativo, comparando las concentraciones de gases atmosféricos preindustriales y actuales.
Los modelos teóricos predicen un forzamiento radiativo promedio anual global de 1.82 ± 0.19 W m-2 debido al aumento de CO2 desde 1750.
La evidencia observacional directa para el impacto radiativo del aumento del CO2 atmosférico sigue siendo limitada a pesar de la modelización extensa.

Objetivo del estudio:

Presentar evidencia basada en la observación del forzamiento radiativo de la superficie de CO2 en cielos despejados.
Atribuir este forzamiento directamente al aumento observado en las concentraciones de CO2 atmosférico entre 2000 y 2010.
Proporcionar validación empírica para las predicciones teóricas del efecto invernadero.

Principales métodos:

Interferómetro de radiación emitida por la atmósfera (AERI) espectros utilizados y mediciones auxiliares.
Se emplearon cálculos de transferencia radiativa completamente corroborados.
Se analizaron datos de dos ubicaciones distintas: las Grandes Llanuras del Sur y la ladera norte de Alaska.

Principales resultados:

Se detectaron tendencias estadísticamente significativas en el forzamiento radiativo superficial de CO2 de 0,2 W m-2 por década en ambas ubicaciones.
Las incertidumbres cuantificadas para estas tendencias son de ±0.06 W m-2 por década (SGP) y ±0.07 W m-2 por década (Alaska).
Se observaron rangos estacionales de 0,1 0,2 W m-2, lo que representa aproximadamente el 10% de la tendencia de la radiación de onda larga descendente.

Conclusiones:

El estudio proporciona evidencia observacional directa del impacto radiativo del aumento del CO2 atmosférico.
Los resultados confirman las predicciones teóricas del efecto invernadero atmosférico impulsado por las emisiones antropogénicas.
Los datos empíricos demuestran cómo el aumento de los niveles de CO2, influenciado por los ciclos biológicos, afecta el balance energético de la superficie.

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