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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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Ciencias del medio ambiente. Perfilar el riesgo y la sostenibilidad en los deltas costeros del mundo

Z D Tessler¹, C J Vörösmarty², M Grossberg³

¹Environmental CrossRoads Initiative, City University of New York, NY 10031, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 8, 2015

Resumen

Los deltas costeros se enfrentan a riesgos crecientes de inundación por el cambio climático y las actividades humanas. Las naciones ricas actualmente mitigan las amenazas con infraestructura, pero esto puede volverse insostenible, elevando significativamente los riesgos futuros.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del medio ambiente
La geofísica
Ciencias sociales

Sus antecedentes:

Los deltas son ecosistemas críticos vulnerables a diversas presiones ambientales y antropogénicas.
Los cambios globales como el aumento del nivel del mar y el clima extremo exacerban los riesgos existentes.
Las actividades humanas y el hundimiento de la tierra aumentan aún más la vulnerabilidad del delta.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para cuantificar los cambios en los riesgos de inundación en los deltas debido a eventos extremos.
Analizar la influencia del desarrollo económico en la mitigación del riesgo de inundación.
Proyectar futuros riesgos de inundación bajo un escenario de energía limitada.

Principales métodos:

Evaluación integrada mediante el uso de indicadores ambientales, geofísicos y sociales globales.
Cuantificación de los cambios en el riesgo de inundación.
Análisis comparativo de las diferentes regiones del delta y niveles económicos.

Principales resultados:

Los riesgos de inundación están presentes en todos los niveles de desarrollo económico.
Los países de altos ingresos actualmente gestionan los riesgos a través de infraestructuras y defensas costeras habilitadas para el PIB.
Se prevé que las limitaciones energéticas futuras aumenten significativamente los riesgos relativos de inundación en los principales deltas.

Conclusiones:

Las soluciones actuales a corto plazo para la gestión del delta pueden obstaculizar la sostenibilidad a largo plazo.
El desarrollo económico influye pero no elimina el riesgo de inundación.
Las futuras limitaciones energéticas representan una amenaza sustancial para la seguridad a largo plazo de las regiones del delta.

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