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Emisiones permitidas de CO2 basadas en objetivos climáticos regionales y relacionados con el impacto

Sonia I Seneviratne¹, Markus G Donat^2,3, Andy J Pitman^2,3

¹Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

|January 21, 2016

Resumen

Los objetivos de temperatura global pueden no transmitir suficiente urgencia. La traducción de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono (CO2) en impactos climáticos regionales ofrece un enfoque más convincente para los intereses nacionales y la acción climática.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Ciencias del medio ambiente

Sus antecedentes:

Los objetivos de temperatura global, como 2°C por encima de los niveles preindustriales, pueden carecer de la urgencia necesaria para una reducción efectiva de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono (CO2).
Los objetivos globales actuales pueden no transmitir adecuadamente los impactos localizados del cambio climático.

Objetivo del estudio:

Explorar la eficacia de traducir las emisiones mundiales de CO2 en objetivos climáticos regionales.
Demostrar cómo los objetivos relacionados con el impacto regional pueden alinearse mejor con los intereses nacionales y aumentar la urgencia de la acción climática.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de las relaciones de escala entre la temperatura global y los cambios climáticos regionales.
Utilizando los cambios regionales en las temperaturas extremas y la precipitación como indicadores clave.
Examinar cómo estos cambios regionales se correlacionan con las emisiones acumuladas de CO2 en diferentes escenarios.

Principales resultados:

Los cambios regionales en las temperaturas extremas y las precipitaciones se correlacionan fuertemente con el aumento de la temperatura global y las emisiones acumuladas de CO2.
Los cambios en las temperaturas extremas regionales en tierra se amplifican significativamente en comparación con los cambios en la temperatura media global.
Esta escala proporciona un vínculo directo entre las emisiones y los impactos regionales tangibles.

Conclusiones:

La traducción de las emisiones mundiales de CO2 en objetivos regionales de impacto climático puede ser más eficaz que los umbrales de temperatura mundiales.
Los objetivos específicos de la región, en particular los centrados en el clima extremo, pueden comunicar mejor la urgencia del cambio climático a las naciones.
Este enfoque alinea la acción climática con los intereses nacionales, impulsando potencialmente esfuerzos de reducción de emisiones más sólidos.

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