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La futura hipercapnia oceánica impulsada por la amplificación antropogénica del ciclo natural del CO2

Ben I McNeil^1,2, Tristan P Sasse^1,3

¹Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

|January 22, 2016

Resumen

La hipercapnia oceánica, impulsada por altos niveles de dióxido de carbono (CO2), se multiplicará por diez para el año 2100, amenazando la vida marina y la pesca. Este ciclo amplificado de CO2 plantea riesgos para las pesquerías mundiales décadas antes de lo previsto.

Área de la Ciencia:

La oceanografía
Biología marina
Ciencias del clima

Sus antecedentes:

Las concentraciones elevadas de dióxido de carbono (CO2) en el agua de mar, denominadas hipercapnia oceánica, tienen un impacto negativo en la neurología, la fisiología y el comportamiento de los animales marinos.
La predicción precisa de la hipercapnia oceánica requiere comprender las variaciones anuales de CO2, sin embargo, los datos de observación global son escasos.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para analizar los patrones globales de la variabilidad mensual de la concentración de CO2 oceánico.
Examinar el ciclo anual de los niveles de CO2 de la superficie oceánica bajo el aumento del CO2 atmosférico.
Para predecir la evolución futura de la hipercapnia oceánica.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron datos de observación globales para identificar la variabilidad mensual de la concentración de CO2.
Analizado el ciclo anual de la superficie del océano CO2.
Se utilizó el escenario de la vía de concentración representativa 8.5 (RCP8.5) para las proyecciones futuras.

Principales resultados:

Predijo una amplificación de diez veces de las oscilaciones oceánicas de CO2 en algunas regiones para 2100 bajo el escenario RCP8.5.
Se han identificado patrones globales distintos en el ciclo anual amplificado de CO2.
Se pronostica el inicio de la hipercapnia oceánica a 650 ppm de CO2 atmosférico, lo que podría afectar a la mitad de la superficie del océano para el año 2100.

Conclusiones:

Los ciclos anuales amplificados de CO2 crean "puntos calientes de CO2" en los océanos Sur, Pacífico y Atlántico Norte, lo que pone en riesgo la aparición temprana de hipercapnia para las pesquerías.
La amplificación no lineal del CO2 es impulsada por la dinámica estacional del CO2 y la reducción de la capacidad de amortiguamiento del océano por el almacenamiento antropogénico de CO2.
La hipercapnia oceánica extensa para el año 2100 tiene graves implicaciones para las pesquerías mundiales.

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