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Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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Groupthink01:34

Groupthink

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When in group settings, we are often influenced by the thoughts, feelings, and behaviors around us. Groupthink is another phenomenon of conformity where modification of the opinions of members in a group aligns with what they believe is the group consensus (Janis, 1972). In such situations, the group often takes action that individuals would not perform outside the group setting because groups make more extreme decisions than individuals do. Moreover, groupthink can hinder opposing trains of...
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Decision Making: Traditional Method01:14

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
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Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation01:22

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In practice, we rarely know the population standard deviation. In the past, when the sample size was large, this did not present a problem to statisticians. They used the sample standard deviation s as an estimate for σ and proceeded as before to calculate a confidence interval with close enough results. However, statisticians ran into problems when the sample size was small. A small sample size caused inaccuracies in the confidence interval.
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the...
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Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim  is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses:  a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
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Gauss's Law: Problem-Solving01:10

Gauss's Law: Problem-Solving

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Gauss's law helps determine electric fields even though the law is not directly about electric fields but electric flux. In situations with certain symmetries (spherical, cylindrical, or planar) in the charge distribution, the electric field can be deduced based on the knowledge of the electric flux. In these systems, we can find a Gaussian surface S over which the electric field has a constant magnitude. Furthermore, suppose the electric field is parallel (or antiparallel) to the area vector...
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The Collective Trust Game: An Online Group Adaptation of the Trust Game Based on the HoneyComb Paradigm
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Una solución al problema de la sabiduría de la multitud de una sola pregunta

Dražen Prelec1,2,3, H Sebastian Seung4, John McCoy3

  • 1Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA.

Nature
|January 28, 2017
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

La sabiduría de la multitud es poderosa, pero el voto democrático tiene limitaciones. Un nuevo método, la selección de respuestas más populares de lo previsto, supera a los métodos tradicionales para la resolución de problemas complejos.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias sociales
  • Ciencia de la decisión
  • Inteligencia colectiva

Sus antecedentes:

  • El concepto de "sabiduría de la multitud" sugiere que el juicio colectivo supera la experiencia individual.
  • Los sistemas de votación en línea se utilizan cada vez más para la previsión, la política y la evaluación de expertos.
  • Los métodos tradicionales de votación democrática, aunque simples, pueden favorecer el conocimiento común sobre las ideas especializadas.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Abordar las limitaciones del voto democrático en la inteligencia colectiva.
  • Proponer y validar un algoritmo alternativo para extraer sabiduría de las multitudes.
  • Demostrar la superioridad del método propuesto sobre los métodos existentes.

Principales métodos:

  • Propuso un nuevo principio de votación: seleccionar respuestas que se predijo que serían más populares de lo que son.
  • Analizó el comportamiento del votante bajo suposiciones razonables.
  • Comparó el método propuesto con los principios de "más popular" y "más seguro".

Principales resultados:

  • El principio propuesto de "más popular que lo previsto" da respuestas óptimas bajo suposiciones probadas.
  • Los métodos estándar "más populares" y "más seguros" fallan bajo los mismos supuestos.
  • El nuevo método es sólido y aplicable a diversos escenarios de toma de decisiones.

Conclusiones:

  • El principio de votación propuesto ofrece una forma más fiable de aprovechar la inteligencia colectiva.
  • Este método supera el sesgo hacia la información superficial inherente a la votación democrática.
  • El enfoque tiene una amplia aplicabilidad más allá del aprendizaje automático y la psicometría, incluidas las disputas científicas y legales.