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Almacenamiento estacional de agua, modulación del estrés y sismicidad de California
Christopher W Johnson1,2, Yuning Fu3, Roland Bürgmann4,2
1Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. cwj@seismo.berkeley.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 17, 2017
Resumen
El almacenamiento estacional de agua en California influye en el tiempo de los terremotos. La carga hidrológica modula modestamente las tasas de sismicidad, y los terremotos ocurren con más frecuencia cuando las condiciones de estrés favorecen la ruptura.
Área de la Ciencia:
- La geofísica
- Sismología
- Tectónica
Sus antecedentes:
- La comprensión del tiempo del ciclo sísmico es crucial para la evaluación del peligro.
- La deformación estacional de la corteza debido a la carga hidrológica ofrece un experimento natural.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar la influencia de la carga hidrológica estacional en el tiempo de los terremotos en California.
- Para cuantificar la relación entre la deformación de la corteza y las tasas de sismicidad.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó 9 años de datos de deformación vertical del Sistema de Posicionamiento Global (GPS).
- Modelos desarrollados para simular la carga hidrosférica mensual y los cambios de tensión en las fallas.
- Analizó la correlación entre las condiciones de estrés y la frecuencia de pequeños terremotos.
Principales resultados:
- La carga estacional causa una deformación medible de la corteza en California.
- La frecuencia de los terremotos se correlaciona con períodos de mayor estrés que favorecen la ruptura.
- Las tasas de sismicidad de California muestran una modulación modesta vinculada a los ciclos hidrológicos.
Conclusiones:
- Los ciclos naturales de carga hidrológica influyen de manera medible en la ocurrencia de terremotos.
- Las variaciones estacionales en el almacenamiento de agua juegan un papel en la modulación de la sismicidad.
- Este estudio proporciona información sobre la evaluación del riesgo de terremoto dependiente del tiempo.
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