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Un descenso de la superficie quemada global impulsado por el hombre

N Andela1,2, D C Morton3, L Giglio4

  • 1Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. niels.andela@nasa.gov.

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La actividad mundial de incendios ha disminuido significativamente en los últimos 18 años, impulsada principalmente por la expansión agrícola. Esta tendencia tiene un impacto en los ecosistemas, la composición atmosférica y el ciclo del carbono, con los modelos actuales de incendios que potencialmente sobreestiman las emisiones futuras.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre
  • Ecología
  • Ciencias atmosféricas

Sus antecedentes:

  • El fuego es un proceso crítico del sistema terrestre que influye en los ecosistemas y la composición atmosférica.
  • Comprender las tendencias de incendios a largo plazo es crucial para el clima y el modelado ecológico.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Evaluar las tendencias globales de incendios a largo plazo utilizando múltiples conjuntos de datos satelitales.
  • Identificar las causas principales de los cambios observados en el área quemada.
  • Evaluar las implicaciones de las tendencias de los incendios en las concentraciones de aerosoles, la estructura de la vegetación y el sumidero de carbono terrestre.

Principales métodos:

  • Análisis de múltiples conjuntos de datos de áreas quemadas derivados de satélites durante un período de 18 años.
  • Ajustes estadísticos de la variabilidad de la precipitación para garantizar la solidez de los resultados.
  • Análisis de correlación con variables económicas y demográficas para identificar los impulsores de las tendencias de incendios.

Principales resultados:

  • El área global quemada disminuyó un 24,3 ± 8,8% en los últimos 18 años.
  • La disminución fue más pronunciada en los ecosistemas de sabana y robusta después de tener en cuenta la precipitación.
  • La expansión e intensificación de la agricultura se identificaron como los principales impulsores de la reducción de la actividad de los incendios.

Conclusiones:

  • Las disminuciones de incendios observadas sugieren que los modelos de incendios actuales pueden sobreestimar las emisiones futuras.
  • La reducción de la actividad del fuego tiene implicaciones significativas para los niveles de aerosoles, la vegetación y el sumidero de carbono terrestre.
  • Un modelo conceptual que integra factores económicos y demográficos puede predecir la dinámica del fuego en paisajes influenciados por el hombre.