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Estimando el daño económico del cambio climático en los Estados Unidos

Solomon Hsiang1,2, Robert Kopp3, Amir Jina4

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El cambio climático tendrá un impacto significativo en la economía de los Estados Unidos, costando el 1,2% del PIB por grado Celsius. Las regiones más pobres se enfrentan a daños económicos desproporcionadamente altos, lo que agrava la desigualdad.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del clima
  • Economía del medio ambiente
  • Modelado económico

Sus antecedentes:

  • Las estimaciones de los daños económicos son cruciales para una política climática eficaz.
  • Los modelos anteriores a menudo carecían de explícito espacial y rigor probabilístico.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Desarrollar un marco flexible para calcular los daños causados por el cambio climático.
  • Generar estimaciones de daño económico explícitas, probabilísticas y empíricas para los EE.

Principales métodos:

  • Ciencia del clima integrada, análisis econométricos y modelos de proceso.
  • Construyó una nueva arquitectura para el cálculo de daños.
  • Se utilizaron datos empíricos para la estimación de los daños.

Principales resultados:

  • Los daños combinados de mercado y no de mercado aumentan cuadráticamente con la temperatura media global.
  • El coste medio es de aproximadamente el 1,2% del PIB por +1°C.
  • Los impactos del cambio climático se distribuyen de manera desigual, favoreciendo a las regiones del norte y del oeste y aumentando la desigualdad económica.

Conclusiones:

  • Los condados más pobres de Estados Unidos enfrentan graves consecuencias económicas, con daños de hasta el 20% de los ingresos a finales del siglo XXI bajo escenarios de altas emisiones.
  • Los resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de políticas que aborden tanto la mitigación como la adaptación al cambio climático, centrándose en las poblaciones vulnerables.