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Las solicitudes de asilo responden a las fluctuaciones de temperatura

Anouch Missirian1, Wolfram Schlenker1,2,3

  • 1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 23, 2017
PubMed
Resumen

El cambio climático afecta a la migración humana, y las variaciones climáticas están relacionadas con el aumento de las solicitudes de asilo en la UE. El calentamiento futuro podría acelerar significativamente esta tendencia, especialmente bajo escenarios de emisiones más altas.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del medio ambiente
  • Investigación sobre el cambio climático
  • Sociología

Sus antecedentes:

  • Las negociaciones internacionales sobre el cambio climático y la migración mediterránea ponen de relieve la necesidad de comprender los efectos del cambio climático en la movilidad humana.
  • Las investigaciones anteriores no han cuantificado completamente la relación entre las variaciones climáticas y las solicitudes de asilo transfronterizas.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Investigar la relación cuantitativa entre las variaciones climáticas y las solicitudes de asilo en la Unión Europea (UE) entre 2000 y 2014.
  • Proyectar futuras solicitudes de asilo basadas en escenarios de cambio climático.

Principales métodos:

  • El análisis de las solicitudes de asilo en la UE (con un promedio de 351.000 por año) se correlacionó con datos meteorológicos de 103 países de origen (2000-2014).
  • Utilizó las proyecciones globales diarias reducidas de la NASA Earth Exchange (NEX-GDDP) con 21 modelos climáticos para proyecciones futuras.
  • Escenarios 4.5 y 8.5 de la Vía de Concentración Representativa Empleada (RCP) para el futuro modelado climático.

Principales resultados:

  • Temperaturas que se desvían de la óptima ~ 20 °C aumento no lineal de las solicitudes de asilo.
  • Se prevé un aumento del 28% (98.000 solicitudes/año) para el año 2100 en el marco del PCR 4.5.
  • Un aumento sustancial del 188% (660.000 solicitudes/año) para el año 2100 en el marco del PCR 8.5.

Conclusiones:

  • El cambio climático, específicamente las anomalías de temperatura, es un factor importante de las solicitudes de asilo en la UE.
  • Se prevé que el calentamiento futuro causará una aceleración considerable en las solicitudes de asilo, lo que requerirá respuestas políticas proactivas.
  • Los resultados subrayan la necesidad urgente de una acción climática mundial para mitigar tanto el cambio climático como las presiones migratorias asociadas.