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El calentamiento climático sostenido impulsa la disminución de la productividad biológica marina

J Keith Moore¹, Weiwei Fu¹, Francois Primeau²

¹Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. jkmoore@uci.edu weiweif@uci.edu.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|March 29, 2018

Resumen

El cambio climático puede suprimir los ecosistemas marinos durante 1.000 años. Simulaciones ampliadas revelan que las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero causan desplazamientos de nutrientes, reduciendo la productividad del océano y los rendimientos de la pesca a nivel mundial.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
La oceanografía
Biogeoquímica

Sus antecedentes:

Las proyecciones de cambio climático hasta 2100 pueden pasar por alto retroalimentaciones físico-biogeoquímicas cruciales.
Los efectos acumulativos del calentamiento pueden desencadenar cambios en los ecosistemas a largo plazo.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar los impactos del cambio climático en los ecosistemas marinos después de 2100.
Analizar los efectos de las retroalimentaciones físico-biogeoquímicas en la productividad del océano y el ciclo de los nutrientes.

Principales métodos:

Una simulación climática acoplada que se extiende hasta el año 2300.
Análisis de los cambios en los patrones de viento, las temperaturas del océano, el hielo marino y la distribución de nutrientes.
Modelado de la producción primaria, exportación de carbono y rendimiento de la pesca.

Principales resultados:

Fortalecimiento y desplazamiento de los vientos del oeste hacia los polos, calentamiento de las aguas superficiales y pérdida de hielo marino.
Intenso atrapamiento de nutrientes en el Océano Austral, lo que lleva a la redistribución global de nutrientes.
Disminución significativa de la producción primaria marina (24%) y de las exportaciones de carbono (41%) para el año 2300.
El rendimiento pesquero mundial disminuye en más del 20%, con una caída de casi el 60% en el Atlántico Norte.

Conclusiones:

Las continuas altas emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero pueden suprimir la productividad biológica marina durante un milenio.
Las retroalimentaciones físico-biogeoquímicas alteran significativamente los ecosistemas oceánicos bajo el calentamiento sostenido.
El cambio climático futuro plantea riesgos sustanciales para las redes alimentarias marinas y la pesca mundial.

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