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Elegir el futuro de la Antártida
S R Rintoul1,2,3, S L Chown4, R M DeConto5
1CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Steve.Rintoul@csiro.au.
Nature
|June 15, 2018
Resumen
Los cambios futuros de la Antártida y el Océano Austral dependen de la acción climática inmediata. Las emisiones no controladas provocan graves impactos, mientras que las políticas decisivas pueden ralentizar los cambios ambientales.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- Investigaciones polares
- La oceanografía
Sus antecedentes:
- La Antártida y el Océano Austral son componentes críticos del sistema climático global.
- Las políticas ambientales actuales pueden ser insuficientes para mitigar los impactos futuros del cambio climático.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Explorar dos posibles escenarios futuros para la Antártida y el Océano Austral para el año 2070.
- Resaltar las consecuencias de las diferentes vías de política climática.
Principales métodos:
- Desarrollo de dos narrativas contrastantes basadas en las trayectorias climáticas futuras.
- Análisis retrospectivo desde el año 2070.
Principales resultados:
- Escenario 1 (emisiones no controladas): Calentamiento significativo, ramificaciones ambientales generalizadas en la Antártida y el Océano Austral, y impactos globales.
- Escenario 2 (acción ambiciosa): desaceleración del cambio ambiental en la Antártida debido a la reducción de la presión antropogénica.
Conclusiones:
- La próxima década es crítica para determinar la trayectoria ambiental futura de la Antártida.
- Se necesitan políticas climáticas urgentes y ambiciosas para mitigar las graves consecuencias mundiales.
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