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Transformación global pasada y futura de los ecosistemas terrestres bajo el cambio climático

Connor Nolan¹, Jonathan T Overpeck^2,1, Judy R M Allen³

¹Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 1, 2018

Resumen

El cambio climático global tiene un impacto significativo en los ecosistemas terrestres. Sin reducciones de emisiones, los ecosistemas de todo el mundo se enfrentan a grandes transformaciones, que amenazan la biodiversidad y los servicios ecosistémicos.

Área de la Ciencia:

Paleoecología
Ciencias del clima
Ecología

Sus antecedentes:

Los impactos del cambio climático global en los ecosistemas terrestres no se comprenden bien.
Los eventos de calentamiento pasados, como la última transición glacial a interglacial, causaron cambios significativos en el ecosistema.
El calentamiento futuro bajo escenarios de altas emisiones puede rivalizar con los eventos de calentamiento pasados en magnitud.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para analizar los cambios en la vegetación terrestre en el pasado utilizando registros paleoecológicos.
Proyectar futuras transformaciones del ecosistema bajo diferentes escenarios de emisiones.
Evaluar la sensibilidad de los ecosistemas terrestres al cambio de temperatura.

Principales métodos:

Se revisaron 594 registros paleoecológicos publicados.
Cambios en la composición y estructura de la vegetación terrestre desde el último período glacial.
Magnitudes proyectadas de transformación de los ecosistemas bajo escenarios de emisiones futuros alternativos.

Principales resultados:

Los ecosistemas terrestres demuestran una alta sensibilidad a los cambios de temperatura.
Los eventos de calentamiento pasados llevaron a transformaciones generalizadas del ecosistema.
El calentamiento futuro plantea el riesgo de una importante transformación del ecosistema global.

Conclusiones:

Las reducciones significativas de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero son cruciales.
Si no se reducen las emisiones, se corre el riesgo de una interrupción generalizada de los servicios ecosistémicos.
La biodiversidad está en riesgo debido a las posibles transformaciones de los ecosistemas.

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