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Estimación y seguimiento del presupuesto de carbono restante para objetivos climáticos estrictos
Joeri Rogelj1,2,3, Piers M Forster4, Elmar Kriegler5
1Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK. j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk.
Nature
|July 19, 2019
Resumen
El calentamiento global se correlaciona con las emisiones de dióxido de carbono, lo que permite el cálculo del presupuesto de carbono. Un nuevo marco ayuda a rastrear y reducir las incertidumbres en estas estimaciones para una acción climática efectiva.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del medio ambiente
Sus antecedentes:
- El calentamiento global es directamente proporcional a las emisiones acumuladas de dióxido de carbono antropogénico.
- El Acuerdo de París establece un límite para el aumento de la temperatura media global.
- Las estimaciones del presupuesto de carbono restante varían ampliamente, lo que dificulta los objetivos efectivos de reducción de emisiones.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Presentar un marco para el seguimiento de las estimaciones restantes del presupuesto de carbono.
- Comprender cómo los avances científicos mejoran estas estimaciones con el tiempo.
- Conciliar las discrepancias en las estimaciones del presupuesto de carbono y reducir la incertidumbre futura.
Principales métodos:
- Desarrollo de un marco para el seguimiento de la evolución de las estimaciones del presupuesto de carbono.
- Análisis de los factores que contribuyen al rango de las estimaciones actuales.
- Proponer métodos para reducir la incertidumbre en las proyecciones futuras.
Principales resultados:
- El marco propuesto permite un seguimiento sistemático de las estimaciones del presupuesto de carbono.
- Proporciona información sobre el progreso de los conocimientos científicos que afectan a estos presupuestos.
- El marco facilita una conciliación más clara de las diferentes estimaciones presupuestarias.
Conclusiones:
- Un marco estandarizado puede mejorar la fiabilidad de las estimaciones restantes del presupuesto de carbono.
- La reducción de la incertidumbre en los presupuestos de carbono es crucial para alcanzar los objetivos del Acuerdo de París.
- Este enfoque apoya la política climática y las estrategias de reducción de emisiones basadas en la evidencia.
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