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Respuesta media débil líquido-nube-agua a los aerosoles antropogénicos

Velle Toll^1,2, Matthew Christensen³, Johannes Quaas⁴

¹Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK. velle.toll@ut.ee.

|August 2, 2019

Resumen

Los aerosoles antropogénicos causan una débil disminución en el agua de la nube, contrariamente a las teorías anteriores. Este hallazgo reduce la incertidumbre en las proyecciones del cambio climático al mostrar que los aerosoles tienen un efecto de enfriamiento menor de lo esperado.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias atmosféricas
Ciencias del clima
Física de las nubes

Sus antecedentes:

Los aerosoles antropogénicos influyen en el clima de la Tierra al interactuar con las nubes.
Se planteó la hipótesis de que los aumentos de agua en las nubes inducidos por los aerosoles, a través de la lluvia suprimida, causan un enfriamiento significativo.
Esto implicaba una alta sensibilidad de la temperatura de la superficie al forzamiento antropogénico.

Objetivo del estudio:

Proporcionar evidencia observacional directa de los efectos de los aerosoles en el agua de las nubes.
Cuantificar el impacto de los aerosoles en el contenido de agua de las nubes en fase líquida.
Reevaluar el efecto de enfriamiento climático atribuido a los aerosoles.

Principales métodos:

Observación directa de nubes contaminadas por el viento de varias fuentes antropogénicas.
Comparación del contenido de agua en las nubes contaminadas frente a las no contaminadas.
Estimación de los cambios inducidos por los aerosoles en el agua de las nubes y su contribución al forzamiento climático.

Principales resultados:

Los aerosoles causan una disminución promedio relativamente débil en el agua de la nube en fase líquida.
Los efectos de los aerosoles de la lluvia suprimida (aumento de agua) y la evaporación aumentada (disminución de agua) se cancelan parcialmente.
La disminución observada del agua de las nubes compensa el 23% del efecto de enfriamiento del aumento de la concentración de gotas de nubes.

Conclusiones:

La hipótesis de un enfriamiento sustancial del clima debido al aumento del agua de las nubes es invalidada.
Las interacciones entre aerosoles y nubes tienen un efecto de enfriamiento más débil de lo estimado anteriormente.
Se reduce la incertidumbre en las proyecciones climáticas futuras.

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