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Una nueva lógica de escenario para el objetivo de temperatura a largo plazo del Acuerdo de París

Joeri Rogelj^1,2,3, Daniel Huppmann⁴, Volker Krey^4,5

¹International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk.

|September 20, 2019

Resumen

Los escenarios climáticos actuales corren el riesgo de retrasar la acción al centrarse en los objetivos de 2100. Este estudio propone un nuevo marco para limitar el calentamiento global, priorizando las reducciones de emisiones más tempranas para la equidad intergeneracional y los futuros sostenibles.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
La política de medio ambiente
Desarrollo sostenible

Sus antecedentes:

Los escenarios climáticos actuales para la mitigación del calentamiento global a menudo se centran en los objetivos de fin de siglo (2100).
Este enfoque centrado en 2100 puede llevar a reducciones de emisiones retrasadas y a un calentamiento inaceptable a mediados de siglo.
La confianza en la futura eliminación de dióxido de carbono para compensar la acción tardía plantea riesgos.

Objetivo del estudio:

Proponer un nuevo marco de escenarios para la política climática que priorice la limitación del calentamiento global a un nivel máximo.
Alinear la acción climática con la ciencia física de la estabilización o reversión de la temperatura.
Integrar la equidad intergeneracional explícitamente en el diseño de escenarios climáticos.

Principales métodos:

Basándose en conocimientos de la ciencia del clima físico.
Desarrollo de un marco de escenarios centrado en los límites máximos de calentamiento.
Analizando las implicaciones de las diferentes trayectorias de calentamiento post-pico.

Principales resultados:

La ambición de la acción climática hasta la neutralidad de carbono determina directamente los niveles máximos de calentamiento.
Diferentes estados a largo plazo con diferentes implicaciones de sostenibilidad pueden seguir el calentamiento máximo.
El marco propuesto se alinea con los objetivos del Acuerdo de París de las Naciones Unidas.

Conclusiones:

Un marco de escenarios basado en límites ofrece un enfoque más sólido para limitar el calentamiento global por debajo de 1,5 °C o 2 °C.
Centrarse en el calentamiento máximo y la estabilización / reversión aborda las debilidades en los escenarios actuales centrados en 2100.
Abordar explícitamente la equidad intergeneracional es crucial para una política climática efectiva y equitativa.

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