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Modelado global de las contribuciones de la naturaleza a las personas
Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer1,2, Richard P Sharp3, Charlotte Weil3
1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. bchaplin@stanford.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 12, 2019
Resumen
El cambio global amenaza la capacidad de la naturaleza para proporcionar servicios esenciales como el agua limpia y la polinización. Los escenarios futuros proyectan que miles de millones de personas se enfrentarán a mayores riesgos, pero el desarrollo sostenible puede mitigar significativamente estos impactos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Evaluación de los servicios ecosistémicos
- Modelado del cambio ambiental global
- Biodiversidad y bienestar humano
Sus antecedentes:
- El cambio global requiere una rápida evaluación de las contribuciones de la naturaleza a las personas.
- Los servicios ecosistémicos clave incluyen la regulación de la calidad del agua, la protección costera y la polinización de los cultivos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Modele el estado actual y los escenarios futuros de los servicios críticos de los ecosistemas a nivel mundial.
- Evaluar el impacto del uso de la tierra y el cambio climático en las contribuciones de la naturaleza.
- Cuantificar la reducción potencial de riesgos a través del desarrollo sostenible.
Principales métodos:
- Modelado global a gran escala de la prestación de servicios de los ecosistemas.
- Análisis de escenarios para el uso de la tierra y los impactos del cambio climático.
- Evaluación de las necesidades humanas frente a la capacidad de la naturaleza para cumplir.
Principales resultados:
- La capacidad de la naturaleza para satisfacer las necesidades humanas está disminuyendo donde las necesidades son más grandes.
- Hasta 5 mil millones de personas pueden enfrentar la contaminación del agua y el déficit de polinización.
- Cientos de millones de personas enfrentan mayores riesgos costeros en todos los continentes.
Conclusiones:
- La pérdida continua de biodiversidad plantea graves amenazas para el bienestar humano.
- Los escenarios de desarrollo sostenible pueden reducir los riesgos de 3 a 10 veces.
- Se necesitan medidas urgentes para asegurar los servicios de los ecosistemas para las generaciones futuras.
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