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Preparación y vulnerabilidad de los países africanos frente a las importaciones de COVID-19: un estudio de modelo
Marius Gilbert1, Giulia Pullano2, Francesco Pinotti3
1Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 24, 2020
Resumen
Las naciones africanas enfrentan riesgos de importación de COVID-19. Mientras que los países de mayor riesgo muestran una capacidad de respuesta moderada, otros necesitan priorizar urgentemente los recursos para la detección y contención de la nueva enfermedad por coronavirus 2019.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Seguridad de la salud mundial
- Epidemiología
- Preparación para la salud pública
Sus antecedentes:
- La epidemia de COVID-19 se ha extendido a nivel mundial, con transmisión local en 12 países.
- África enfrenta riesgos de importación de COVID-19, con Egipto confirmando un caso.
- El control efectivo del COVID-19 depende de las capacidades del sistema nacional de salud.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar la preparación y la vulnerabilidad de los países africanos a la importación de COVID-19.
- Evaluar el riesgo de introducción de COVID-19 en función del volumen de viajes aéreos desde China.
- Analizar las capacidades nacionales para detectar y responder a brotes.
Principales métodos:
- Riesgo de importación estimado utilizando datos de viajes aéreos desde provincias chinas infectadas a África.
- Evaluación de la preparación del país a través del marco de seguimiento y evaluación de los reglamentos sanitarios internacionales de la OMS.
- Medida de la vulnerabilidad del país mediante el Índice de vulnerabilidad a las enfermedades infecciosas.
- Países agrupados en función de la exposición a regiones chinas específicas.
Principales resultados:
- Los países con mayor riesgo de importación (Egipto, Argelia, Sudáfrica) poseen una capacidad de respuesta de moderada a alta.
- Los países de riesgo moderado (Nigeria, Etiopía, Sudán, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana y Kenia) muestran una capacidad variable y una alta vulnerabilidad.
- Se identificaron tres grupos de países vinculados a provincias chinas específicas (Guangdong, Fujian y Beijing).
Conclusiones:
- Las naciones africanas están mejorando la preparación para el COVID-19.
- La asignación urgente de recursos, la vigilancia y la creación de capacidades son cruciales para los países de riesgo moderado y mal preparados.
- Dar prioridad a estas áreas mejorará la detección de casos importados y limitará la transmisión de la nueva enfermedad de coronavirus 2019.
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