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Una pausa en las tendencias de circulación en el hemisferio sur debido al Protocolo de Montreal
Antara Banerjee1,2, John C Fyfe3, Lorenzo M Polvani4
1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. antara.banerjee@noaa.gov.
Nature
|March 28, 2020
Resumen
Las tendencias de circulación en el hemisferio sur se detuvieron alrededor del año 2000 debido a la recuperación del ozono estratosférico impulsada por el hombre. El Protocolo de Montreal es clave, impactando las precipitaciones y los patrones oceánicos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias atmosféricas
- Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del medio ambiente
Sus antecedentes:
- Las tendencias de circulación del hemisferio sur observadas cerca de la superficie (cambio de chorro hacia los polos, modo anular sur positivo, expansión de la célula de Hadley) a fines del siglo XX estaban relacionadas con el agotamiento del ozono antártico.
- El agotamiento del ozono fue impulsado por las emisiones de sustancias que agotan el ozono.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la pausa o la inversión de las tendencias de circulación del hemisferio sur alrededor del año 2000.
- Atribuir la causa de esta pausa a factores específicos, distinguiéndola de la variabilidad natural del clima.
Principales métodos:
- Se ha utilizado la detección basada en patrones y el análisis de atribución de datos atmosféricos sobre vientos de zona.
- Métodos estadísticos empleados para identificar cambios forzados frente a la variabilidad climática interna.
Principales resultados:
- Demostró que la pausa en las tendencias de circulación del hemisferio sur desde 2000 es una respuesta forzada, no debido a la variabilidad natural.
- Identificó la recuperación del ozono estratosférico, impulsada por el Protocolo de Montreal, como la causa principal de la pausa en la tendencia de la circulación.
Conclusiones:
- El éxito del Protocolo de Montreal en la recuperación del ozono estratosférico ha detenido y parcialmente revertido las tendencias de circulación del hemisferio sur a fines del siglo XX.
- Impactos más amplios previstos en el sistema terrestre, incluidas las precipitaciones y la circulación oceánica, debido a esta pausa en las tendencias de circulación.
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