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Estimando la carga del SARS-CoV-2 en Francia
Henrik Salje1,2,3, Cécile Tran Kiem1,4, Noémie Lefrancq1
1Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 15, 2020
Resumen
El Reino Unido
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología
- Salud pública
- Modelado de enfermedades infecciosas
Sus antecedentes:
- La pandemia del coronavirus 2 del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo (SARS-CoV-2) afectó significativamente a Francia, lo que requirió un cierre nacional el 17 de marzo de 2020.
- Comprender los efectos de la pandemia y la inmunidad de la población es crucial para las estrategias de salud pública.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Estimar el impacto de las medidas de bloqueo en la transmisión del SARS-CoV-2 en Francia.
- Evaluar el nivel de inmunidad de la población y sus implicaciones para futuras oleadas de infección.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron modelos matemáticos aplicados a los datos nacionales de ingreso hospitalario y mortalidad.
- Parámetros epidemiológicos clave estimados, incluidas las tasas de hospitalización y mortalidad de los casos en todos los grupos de edad y sexos.
- Calculó la reducción en el número reproductivo (R0) debido al bloqueo.
Principales resultados:
- El cierre redujo el número reproductivo de 2.90 a 0.67, una disminución del 77%.
- Se prevé que el 5,3% de la población francesa (2,1 a 6,0 millones) esté infectada para el 11 de mayo de 2020.
- Se identificaron tasas más altas de hospitalización y mortalidad en hombres en comparación con mujeres en todos los grupos de edad.
- Se informó una tasa de mortalidad del 0,5% (0,3-0,9%), con aumentos significativos relacionados con la edad, desde el 0,001% en < 20 hasta el 8,3% en ≥ 80.
Conclusiones:
- La inmunidad de la población alcanzada en mayo de 2020 fue insuficiente para prevenir una posible segunda ola de SARS-CoV-2 si se levantaran completamente las medidas de control.
- Las medidas de cierre fueron efectivas para reducir significativamente la transmisión viral.
- La edad y el sexo son factores críticos que influyen en los resultados graves de la infección por SARS-CoV-2.
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