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Evaluación del impacto de las estrategias coordinadas de salida de la COVID-19 en toda Europa
N W Ruktanonchai1,2, J R Floyd1, S Lai1
1WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. nrukt00@gmail.com jrf1g15@soton.ac.uk shengjie.lai@soton.ac.uk.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 19, 2020
Resumen
El alivio coordinado de las restricciones de la enfermedad por coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) puede retrasar los brotes en Europa. Los cierres sincronizados pueden reducir el número de períodos necesarios para eliminar la transmisión comunitaria en todo el continente.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología
- Política de salud pública
- Modelado matemático
Sus antecedentes:
- La disminución de los casos de la enfermedad por coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) en Europa debido a intervenciones no farmacéuticas requiere orientación sobre el alivio de las restricciones.
- Reducir al mínimo el riesgo de reaparición de brotes es fundamental a medida que los países consideran eliminar las medidas de salud pública.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Cuantificar el impacto de las estrategias de salida coordinadas para retrasar el resurgimiento del COVID-19 en toda Europa.
- Evaluar cómo las intervenciones sincronizadas pueden limitar la transmisión comunitaria en todo el continente.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó la movilidad y los datos de casos para modelar la dinámica de transmisión de COVID-19.
- Simulado varios escenarios de estrategia de salida coordinados y no coordinados.
Principales resultados:
- El levantamiento prematuro de las intervenciones en países bien conectados con medidas estrictas podría conducir a un resurgimiento de la epidemia continental hasta 5 semanas antes.
- Las estrategias coordinadas aumentan significativamente la probabilidad de eliminar la transmisión comunitaria en toda Europa.
- La sincronización de bloqueos intermitentes en toda Europa puede reducir a la mitad el número total de períodos de bloqueo necesarios para lograr la eliminación de la transmisión en todo el continente.
Conclusiones:
- Las estrategias de salida coordinadas son esenciales para gestionar el alivio de las restricciones de COVID-19 en Europa.
- Los cierres intermitentes sincronizados ofrecen un enfoque eficiente para controlar la transmisión comunitaria en todo el continente.
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