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Las causas del aumento del nivel del mar desde 1900

Thomas Frederikse¹, Felix Landerer², Lambert Caron²

¹Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. thomas.frederikse@jpl.nasa.gov.

|August 21, 2020

Resumen

El aumento global del nivel del mar desde 1900 ahora se concilia con factores contribuyentes como el derretimiento del hielo y el calentamiento de los océanos. La pérdida de masa de hielo ha sido el principal factor, con eventos específicos relacionados con el derretimiento de los glaciares y los cambios en el almacenamiento de agua.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias de la Tierra y del Océano
Ciencias del clima
Ciencias del medio ambiente

Sus antecedentes:

Las evaluaciones históricas del aumento del nivel medio mundial del mar carecían de conciliación entre los cambios observados y los factores contribuyentes.
Estudios anteriores indicaron datos del nivel del mar poco limitados o procesos contribuyentes.
Las mejoras en los datos de observación y la comprensión del proceso requieren una reevaluación.

Objetivo del estudio:

* Reconstruir el nivel del mar desde 1900 utilizando un marco probabilístico y observaciones independientes.
* Conciliar los cambios observados en el nivel del mar con las contribuciones estimadas de los procesos físicos clave.
* Identificar las principales causas del aumento del nivel del mar y su variabilidad durante el siglo XX.

Principales métodos:

* Desarrollo de un marco probabilístico para reconstruir el nivel del mar.
* Utilizando observaciones independientes y sus incertidumbres para la estimación del cambio del nivel del mar.
* Reconstrucción del nivel del mar a escala global y de cuenca a partir de los registros de las mareas.

Principales resultados:

* La suma de expansión térmica, pérdida de masa de hielo y cambios en el almacenamiento de agua terrestre es consistente con el nivel del mar observado.
* La pérdida de masa de hielo ha contribuido dos veces más al aumento del nivel del mar que la expansión térmica desde 1900.
* La pérdida de masa de los glaciares y la capa de hielo de Groenlandia impulsó un alto aumento del nivel del mar en la década de 1940; el embalse de los embalses redujo las tasas en la década de 1970.
* El aumento acelerado del nivel del mar desde la década de 1970 se atribuye a la expansión térmica del océano y al aumento de la pérdida de masa de hielo de Groenlandia.

Conclusiones:

* El estudio concilia con éxito el aumento medio del nivel del mar observado con estimaciones basadas en procesos físicos subyacentes.
* No se requieren procesos no considerados adicionales para explicar los cambios en el nivel del mar desde 1900.
* La pérdida de masa de hielo y la expansión térmica de los océanos se confirman como los principales impulsores del aumento contemporáneo del nivel del mar.

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