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Medir la precisión de los sistemas de diagnóstico
1BBN Laboratories Incorporated, Cambridge, MA 02238.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 3, 1988
Resumen
La característica operativa relativa (ROC) ofrece una medida confiable de la precisión del diagnóstico, no afectada por los sesgos de decisión. Sin embargo, la calidad de los datos de prueba puede afectar la confianza en los valores de precisión reportados en varios campos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Análisis de la decisión Análisis de la decisión
- Teoría de la detección de señales Teoría de la detección de señales
- Métodos cuantitativos Métodos cuantitativos son métodos cuantitativos que se emplean para determinar el valor de las cantidades.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los sistemas de diagnóstico diferencian entre señales y ruido.
- La evaluación de la precisión del diagnóstico es crucial en diversos campos.
- Las medidas existentes pueden verse influenciadas por sesgos de decisión y probabilidades previas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Introducir la característica de funcionamiento relativo (ROC) como una medida robusta de la precisión del diagnóstico.
- Demostrar la independencia del ROC de los sesgos de decisión y las probabilidades previas.
- Para comparar la precisión del diagnóstico en varias aplicaciones utilizando una escala común.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis utilizando la teoría de la detección de señales y la característica operativa relativa (ROC).
- Revisión de los valores representativos de ROC de diversos sistemas de prueba.
- Evaluación de los problemas de calidad de los datos que afectan a las pruebas de precisión del diagnóstico.
Principales resultados:
- El ROC proporciona una medida precisa y libre de sesgos de la precisión del diagnóstico.
- El análisis ROC estandariza la comparación de rendimiento en imágenes médicas, pruebas de materiales, pronóstico del tiempo, recuperación de información, pruebas de polígrafo y pruebas de aptitud.
- La calidad de los datos de prueba influye significativamente en la fiabilidad de la precisión diagnóstica medida.
Conclusiones:
- La característica de funcionamiento relativo (ROC) es una métrica superior para evaluar los sistemas de diagnóstico.
- La confianza en las medidas de precisión del diagnóstico depende de la calidad de los datos de prueba subyacentes.
- Se necesitan protocolos de prueba estandarizados para mejorar la confiabilidad de las evaluaciones de precisión en todos los campos.
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