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Las emisiones del sistema alimentario global podrían impedir el logro de los objetivos de cambio climático de 1,5° y
Michael A Clark1, Nina G G Domingo2, Kimberly Colgan2
1Oxford Martin School and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. michael.clark@ndph.ox.ac.uk.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 6, 2020
Resumen
Incluso detener las emisiones de combustibles fósiles no alcanzará el objetivo climático de 1,5°C. Los sistemas alimentarios mundiales requieren cambios significativos junto con los sectores no alimentarios para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- Ciencias del medio ambiente
- Análisis de los sistemas alimentarios
Sus antecedentes:
- El Acuerdo de París tiene como objetivo limitar el aumento de la temperatura global a 1,5 o 2 °C por encima de los niveles preindustriales.
- La reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, en particular de los combustibles fósiles, es fundamental para alcanzar estos objetivos climáticos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar el impacto de los sistemas alimentarios mundiales en el logro de los objetivos climáticos del Acuerdo de París.
- Determinar los cambios necesarios en los sistemas alimentarios para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos, independientemente de las emisiones de combustibles fósiles.
Principales métodos:
- Modelado de los efectos de las tendencias actuales del sistema alimentario en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.
- Análisis de escenarios de reducción de emisiones tanto para el sector alimentario como para el no alimentario.
Principales resultados:
- Las tendencias actuales del sistema alimentario mundial por sí solas impedirán alcanzar el objetivo de 1,5°C.
- El objetivo de 2°C está amenazado por los sistemas alimentarios a finales de siglo si continúan las emisiones de combustibles fósiles.
- Alcanzar el objetivo de 1,5°C requiere cambios rápidos y ambiciosos en todos los sectores, incluidos los sistemas alimentarios.
Conclusiones:
- Los sistemas alimentarios representan un obstáculo significativo, a menudo subestimado, para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos globales.
- Las transformaciones sustanciales en la producción y el consumo de alimentos son tan cruciales como las reducciones de emisiones de combustibles fósiles para la mitigación del clima.
- El cumplimiento de los objetivos climáticos requiere un enfoque holístico que aborde las emisiones de todos los sectores, en el que los sistemas alimentarios juegan un papel fundamental.
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