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Un cáncer transmisible pasa de la emergencia al endemismo en los diablos de Tasmania
Austin H Patton1,2, Matthew F Lawrance1, Mark J Margres3
1School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 11, 2020
Resumen
La filodinámica revela que la transmisión de la enfermedad del tumor facial del diablo de Tasmania (DFTD) ha disminuido, pasando de la emergencia al endemismo. Esto ofrece esperanza para la supervivencia de la población amenazada del diablo de Tasmania.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Biología evolutiva
- Epidemiología
- Ciencias de la conservación
Sus antecedentes:
- Las enfermedades infecciosas emergentes amenazan la salud humana y la biodiversidad.
- La filodinámica es crucial para inferir los parámetros epidemiológicos de virus como el SARS-CoV-2.
- La enfermedad del tumor facial del diablo de Tasmania (DFTD) es un cáncer mortal y transmisible que afecta la supervivencia del diablo.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Aplicar la filodinámica para comprender la dinámica epidemiológica de la DFTD.
- Evaluar los cambios en las tasas de transmisión de DFTD a lo largo del tiempo.
- Para evaluar el potencial de supervivencia del diablo de Tasmania.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis filodinámico de la DFTD.
- Estimación de los parámetros epidemiológicos, incluidas las tasas de transmisión.
- Comparación de las tasas de transmisión actuales con los datos históricos.
Principales resultados:
- Las tasas de transmisión de DFTD han disminuido significativamente, de aproximadamente 3,5 a 1 infección secundaria por individuo infectado.
- La enfermedad está pasando de un estado emergente a un estado endémico.
- Esta disminución ofrece una perspectiva más optimista para la conservación del diablo de Tasmania.
Conclusiones:
- La filodinámica proporciona un marco poderoso para analizar la propagación de cánceres transmisibles como el DFTD.
- El estudio demuestra un nuevo enfoque filodinámico aplicable a diversos patógenos.
- Hay una esperanza renovada para la supervivencia a largo plazo del diablo de Tasmania.
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