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Causas de la crisis del seguro de responsabilidad civil
1Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 14104-6218.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 12, 1988
Resumen
Los aumentos dramáticos en las primas de seguro de responsabilidad civil no se deben a colusión o errores de pronóstico. En cambio, el aumento de las primas está más plausiblemente relacionado con el aumento del valor actualizado de las pérdidas de pasivos futuros esperados.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Economía La economía es la economía.
- Estudios de Seguros Estudios de Seguros Estudios de Seguros Estudios de Seguros
- Gestión de riesgos Gestión de riesgos Gestión de riesgos
Sus antecedentes:
- En los últimos años se han visto aumentos significativos y "dramáticos" en las primas de seguros de responsabilidad civil.
- Comprender los impulsores de estos aumentos de primas es crucial para los tomadores de pólizas y la industria.
- Las hipótesis anteriores incluían la colusión de las aseguradoras, la ciclicidad del mercado y las inexactitudes de las previsiones.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar las causas primarias detrás del reciente aumento en las primas de seguros de responsabilidad civil.
- Evaluar y rechazar explicaciones alternativas para el aumento de las primas.
- Identificar el factor más probable que impulsa las subidas de primas observadas.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos de la industria, incluidas las primas, pérdidas y gastos operativos.
- Examen estadístico de la dinámica del mercado de seguros.
- Prueba de hipótesis relacionadas con la colusión, el comportamiento cíclico y los errores de pronóstico.
Principales resultados:
- La evidencia refuta las afirmaciones de que la colusión, el comportamiento cíclico del mercado o los errores sistemáticos de pronóstico son los principales impulsores.
- Los datos sugieren fuertemente que el "salto" en las primas se correlaciona con cambios en las pérdidas futuras esperadas.
- El "valor actualizado" de las pérdidas de pasivo esperadas ha crecido, lo que afecta a las primas corrientes.
Conclusiones:
- La explicación más plausible para el aumento de las primas de seguro de responsabilidad civil es el aumento en el valor presente de las pérdidas futuras previstas.
- Este hallazgo subraya la importancia de la previsión de pérdidas a largo plazo y la evaluación de riesgos en la fijación de precios de seguros.
- Investigaciones adicionales pueden explorar los factores específicos que contribuyen al crecimiento de las pérdidas por pasivos esperados descontados.
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