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La equidad es más importante para el costo social del metano que la incertidumbre climática
Frank C Errickson1,2, Klaus Keller3,4, William D Collins5,6
1School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nature
|April 22, 2021
Resumen
El costo social del metano (SC-CH4) se actualiza con la nueva ciencia climática, lo que resulta en estimaciones más bajas que las utilizadas anteriormente por el gobierno de los Estados Unidos. Estas valoraciones actualizadas sirven de base para la política climática y los análisis de coste-beneficio.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Economía del medio ambiente
- Ciencias del clima
- Modelado de la evaluación integrada
Sus antecedentes:
- El coste social del metano (SC-CH4) cuantifica las pérdidas de bienestar económico derivadas de las emisiones atmosféricas de metano.
- Las estimaciones existentes de SC-CH4 carecen de hallazgos científicos cruciales y de limitaciones observacionales.
- SC-CH4 es vital para los análisis de coste-beneficio y para informar las políticas climáticas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Estimar el coste social del metano (SC-CH4) incorporando los avances científicos recientes.
- Proporcionar valoraciones actualizadas del SC-CH4 para la política climática y las evaluaciones económicas.
Principales métodos:
- Incorporó una revisión al alza del 25% en los cálculos de forzamiento radiativo del metano.
- Se utilizaron modelos climáticos globales calibrados en forma reducida y un conjunto de modelos de evaluación integrados (IAM).
- Contó con una mayor sensibilidad climática de equilibrio y relaciones de parámetros del modelo climático descuidadas.
Principales resultados:
- La media de varios modelos de SC-CH4 se estima en $ 933 / tonelada de CH4 bajo RCP 8.5, una disminución del 22% con respecto a las estimaciones federales de los Estados Unidos.
- Bajo el RCP 2.6, la media de SC-CH4 disminuye a 710 USD/tonelada de CH4.
- Las estimaciones ponderadas por capital muestran importantes disparidades regionales, por ejemplo, 8.290 USD/tonelada de CH4 para los EE.UU. frente a 134 USD/tonelada de CH4 para el África subsahariana.
Conclusiones:
- Las estimaciones actualizadas de SC-CH4 son sustancialmente inferiores a las cifras anteriores, especialmente cuando se tiene en cuenta el capital.
- Las combinaciones de modelos y los submodelos del ciclo del metano influyen significativamente en las estimaciones de SC-CH4.
- Los resultados proporcionan una base científicamente más sólida para la política climática y la toma de decisiones económicas.
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