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Glaciohidrología del Himalaya y Karakoram
Mohd Farooq Azam1, Jeffrey S Kargel2, Joseph M Shea3
1Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol 453552, India. farooqaman@yahoo.co.in.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|June 11, 2021
Resumen
El cambio climático afecta a los ríos del Himalaya y Karakoram, cruciales para mil millones de personas. Los glaciares y el derretimiento de la nieve son clave, y se prevé que la escorrentía aumente hasta 2050, pero persisten las incertidumbres.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Clima y hidrología
- Ciencia de la criosfera
- Gestión de los recursos hídricos
Sus antecedentes:
- Los ríos del Himalaya-Karakoram (HK) son fuentes vitales de agua para aproximadamente mil millones de personas.
- Comprender los impactos del cambio climático en estos ríos es fundamental para la gestión sostenible del agua.
- El derretimiento de los glaciares y la nieve contribuye significativamente al flujo de los ríos en la región de Hong Kong.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar el estado actual y los cambios futuros de los sistemas fluviales de Hong Kong bajo el cambio climático.
- Informar a los responsables políticos sobre las estrategias de gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos.
- Evaluar la importancia hidrológica del derretimiento de los glaciares y la nieve en diferentes cuencas hidrográficas de Hong Kong.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de las contribuciones del deshielo de los glaciares y de la nieve a la escorrentía de los ríos.
- Modelado de la escorrentía del río, el derretimiento de los glaciares y la estacionalidad del flujo.
- Identificación de las lagunas de conocimiento en los modelos y datos hidrológicos actuales.
Principales resultados:
- Los glaciares y el derretimiento de la nieve son componentes hidrológicos importantes en los ríos de Hong Kong.
- La cuenca del Indo muestra una mayor dependencia hidrológica del agua de deshielo en comparación con las cuencas del Ganges y el Brahmaputra.
- Se prevé que la escorrentía total de los ríos, el derretimiento de los glaciares y la estacionalidad del flujo aumenten hasta la década de 2050, con notables incertidumbres.
Conclusiones:
- Las lagunas de conocimiento significativas dificultan el modelado preciso de los componentes de escorrentía y las proyecciones futuras.
- Las observaciones completas de campo y de teledetección son esenciales para mejorar los modelos hidrológicos.
- Abordar las incertidumbres es crucial para una gestión eficaz de los recursos hídricos en la región de Hong Kong.
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