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Desenredar las introducciones y la persistencia en el resurgimiento de COVID-19 en Europa
Philippe Lemey1,2, Nick Ruktanonchai3,4, Samuel L Hong5
1Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.
Nature
|June 30, 2021
Resumen
Los nuevos linajes de SARS-CoV-2 introducidos en Europa después de junio de 2020 alimentaron el resurgimiento de COVID-19. La propagación de estas nuevas variantes se relacionó con un menor número de viajes y menores tasas de infección local.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología
- La genómica
- Filogeografía
Sus antecedentes:
- Europa se enfrentó a un resurgimiento más letal de COVID-19 a fines del verano de 2020 después de la ola inicial de primavera.
- Se sospecha que las intervenciones relajadas y los viajes de verano fueron los impulsores de esta segunda ola.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Evaluar la contribución de los linajes de SARS-CoV-2 recientemente introducidos frente a los persistentes al resurgimiento europeo.
- Para modelar la propagación filogeográfica del COVID-19 en Europa.
Principales métodos:
- Modelado filogeográfico que integra datos genómicos, de movilidad y epidemiológicos de 10 países europeos.
- Análisis de las dinámicas de introducción y transmisión del linaje.
Principales resultados:
- Más de la mitad de los linajes circulantes a fines del verano de 2020 resultaron de nuevas introducciones posteriores al 15 de junio.
- El éxito de transmisión de los nuevos linajes estaba inversamente relacionado con la incidencia local de COVID-19.
- La propagación viral destaca los riesgos asociados con el levantamiento de las restricciones.
Conclusiones:
- La introducción de nuevos linajes contribuyó significativamente al resurgimiento del COVID-19 en Europa.
- La contención efectiva requiere medidas coordinadas de viaje transfronterizo, especialmente para las variantes más transmisibles.
- Las estrategias deben considerar los riesgos de diseminación viral junto con los esfuerzos de vacunación.
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