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Los combustibles fósiles no extraíbles en un mundo de 1,5 °C

Dan Welsby¹, James Price², Steve Pye²

¹Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK. daniel.welsby.14@ucl.ac.uk.

|September 9, 2021

Resumen

Para limitar el calentamiento global a 1,5°C, el 60% del petróleo y el gas y el 90% del carbón deben permanecer sin extraer. La producción mundial de petróleo y gas debe disminuir un 3% anual hasta 2050.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Análisis de los sistemas energéticos
La política de medio ambiente

Sus antecedentes:

El Acuerdo de París tiene como objetivo limitar el calentamiento global a 1,5°C por encima de los niveles preindustriales.
Los combustibles fósiles siguen siendo dominantes, lo que requiere una reducción significativa de su uso para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos.
Los sistemas energéticos actuales requieren una transformación sustancial para alinearse con los objetivos climáticos globales.

Objetivo del estudio:

Determinar la cantidad de combustibles fósiles que deben permanecer sin extraer a nivel mundial y regional para lograr una probabilidad del 50% de limitar el calentamiento a 1,5 °C.
Evaluar la tasa de disminución anual requerida en la producción mundial de petróleo y gas.
Identificar las implicaciones para los proyectos de combustibles fósiles existentes y planificados.

Principales métodos:

Utilizó un modelo de sistemas de energía global para simular escenarios de extracción de combustibles fósiles.
Reservas cuantificadas de combustibles fósiles no extraídos (petróleo, gas metano, carbón) necesarias para un presupuesto de carbono de 1,5 °C.
Tasas estimadas de disminución de la producción anual de petróleo y gas.

Principales resultados:

Para el año 2050, aproximadamente el 60% de las reservas de petróleo y gas metano fósil y el 90% del carbón deben permanecer sin extraer.
Esto representa un aumento sustancial de los combustibles fósiles no extraíbles en comparación con un objetivo de 2°C, especialmente para el petróleo.
La producción mundial de petróleo y gas requiere una disminución anual del 3% hasta 2050, lo que implica un pico de producción inmediato en la mayoría de las regiones.

Conclusiones:

Alcanzar el objetivo de 1,5°C requiere dejar grandes cantidades de combustibles fósiles en el suelo.
Numerosos proyectos operativos y planificados de combustibles fósiles probablemente no sean viables bajo una trayectoria de 1,5 °C.
El estudio puede subestimar los cambios requeridos debido a las incertidumbres en las tecnologías de emisiones negativas y a la necesidad de una probabilidad superior al 50%.

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