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La voluntad de luchar
1Scott Atran is an emeritus director of research at the French National Center for Scientific Research, Paris, France; a senior research associate at the Changing Character of War Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; and adjunct professor at the Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 13, 2021
Resumen
Comprender la voluntad de luchar requiere reconocer el papel crítico de los valores sagrados y la fuerza espiritual, a menudo pasados por alto en las evaluaciones estratégicas. Ignorar estos factores lleva a predicciones inexactas y desafíos de seguridad intratables.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias políticas
- Estrategia militar
- Sociología
Sus antecedentes:
- Los recientes resultados militares en Afganistán e Irak revelaron una sorprendente subestimación de la determinación del enemigo y una sobreestimación de la voluntad de lucha aliada.
- Las evaluaciones de inteligencia con frecuencia etiquetan la "voluntad de luchar" como imponderable, lo que indica una brecha en la comprensión de los factores motivacionales clave.
- Los líderes políticos y militares a menudo descuentan la investigación que destaca la importancia de los valores sagrados y la fuerza espiritual en la eficacia del combate.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar la subestimación de la fuerza espiritual y los valores sagrados en la toma de decisiones militares y políticas.
- Desafiar el enfoque estrecho en la racionalidad instrumental y utilitaria en la evaluación de la voluntad de luchar.
- Destacar la importancia de los factores no utilitarios para comprender las dinámicas de los conflictos.
Principales métodos:
- Revisión de las declaraciones y evaluaciones de los líderes políticos y militares.
- Análisis de la investigación existente sobre los valores sagrados y la fuerza espiritual.
- Crítica de los marcos de elección racional prevalecientes en los estudios de seguridad.
Principales resultados:
- Los líderes políticos y militares con frecuencia descuidan la investigación sobre los valores sagrados y la fortaleza espiritual.
- Este descuento contribuye a los errores de cálculo con respecto a la voluntad de luchar.
- Un enfoque estrecho en la racionalidad utilitaria dificulta la evaluación precisa de la amenaza.
Conclusiones:
- La voluntad de luchar está significativamente influenciada por los valores sagrados y la fuerza espiritual.
- La incorporación de estos factores es crucial para superar los desafíos de seguridad.
- Los análisis futuros deben adoptar una perspectiva más amplia que la racionalidad instrumental.
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