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Los esfuerzos mundiales actuales son insuficientes para limitar el calentamiento a 1,5°C

H Damon Matthews¹, Seth Wynes¹

¹Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, QB, Canada.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 23, 2022

Resumen

Las temperaturas globales han aumentado 1,25°C debido a la actividad humana. Las políticas climáticas actuales y los objetivos netos cero son insuficientes para cumplir con el límite de calentamiento de 1,5 ° C, lo que requiere un cambio político y social.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
La política de medio ambiente
El cambio social

Sus antecedentes:

Las temperaturas globales ya han aumentado en 1,25°C debido a las actividades humanas.
Las trayectorias actuales de las emisiones indican una posible superación del umbral de calentamiento de 1,5 °C en una década.
A pesar de la desaceleración del crecimiento de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono y el fortalecimiento de los objetivos nacionales, los objetivos netos cero existentes para mediados de siglo son inadecuados para limitar el calentamiento a 1,5°C.

Objetivo del estudio:

Evaluar la viabilidad de alcanzar el límite de calentamiento global de 1,5°C.
Identificar las principales barreras que impiden la adhesión a una vía compatible con 1,5°C.
Evaluar las condiciones necesarias para superar la inercia de los sistemas políticos y tecnológicos.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los datos sobre la temperatura global y las trayectorias de las emisiones.
Revisión de los actuales objetivos nacionales de emisiones y de los objetivos de cero emisiones para mediados de siglo.
Evaluación de los factores políticos, tecnológicos y sociales que influyen en la acción climática.

Principales resultados:

Los principales obstáculos para un camino de 1,5 ° C son la inercia sistémica en los dominios políticos y tecnológicos, no las limitaciones geofísicas.
Los objetivos actuales de cero neto son insuficientes para evitar que se supere el límite de calentamiento de 1,5 °C.
Se requiere un liderazgo político y corporativo significativo, junto con cambios sociales, para superar la inercia.

Conclusiones:

Limitar el calentamiento global a 1,5°C requiere superar la inercia de los sistemas políticos y tecnológicos.
El logro de este objetivo requiere un fuerte liderazgo y un amplio reconocimiento social de la necesidad de cambios sistémicos y de estilo de vida.
El compromiso global actual con el objetivo de 1,5 °C parece insuficiente según las pruebas disponibles.

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