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El calentamiento global superior a 1,5°C podría desencadenar múltiples puntos de inflexión climáticos

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Los puntos de inflexión climáticos, umbrales críticos en el sistema de la Tierra, están cada vez más cerca con el calentamiento actual. Se necesitan medidas urgentes de mitigación del cambio climático para evitar los graves impactos de estos cambios que se perpetúan por sí mismos.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del clima
  • Ciencias del sistema terrestre
  • Paleoclimatología

Sus antecedentes:

  • Los puntos de inflexión climáticos representan umbrales críticos donde las pequeñas perturbaciones pueden desencadenar impactos sustanciales del sistema terrestre que se autoperpetúan.
  • El actual calentamiento global de aproximadamente 1,1°C por encima de los niveles preindustriales se acerca a los límites inferiores de incertidumbre para algunos puntos de inflexión.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Proporcionar una síntesis revisada de los elementos de cambio climático global y regional y sus umbrales de temperatura asociados.
  • Evaluar el riesgo de desencadenar puntos de inflexión en diferentes escenarios de calentamiento global, incluido el rango del Acuerdo de París y las trayectorias políticas actuales.

Principales métodos:

  • Sintetizando los hallazgos de los registros paleoclimáticos.
  • Integración de los datos de los estudios climáticos de observación.
  • Utilización de la investigación basada en modelos climáticos.

Principales resultados:

  • Se ha identificado una lista corta revisada de elementos decisivos de "núcleo" global y de "impacto" regional.
  • Varios puntos de inflexión pueden desencadenarse dentro del rango de calentamiento de 1,5 °C a 2 °C descrito en el Acuerdo de París.
  • Es probable que se activen numerosos puntos de inflexión con un calentamiento de 2°C a 3°C, en consonancia con las proyecciones políticas actuales.

Conclusiones:

  • Se refuerza la base de pruebas para la mitigación urgente del cambio climático.
  • La mejora de la evaluación de riesgos, los sistemas de alerta temprana y las estrategias de adaptación para los puntos de inflexión son cruciales.