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Potencial limitado de mitigación del cambio climático a través de la forestación de las vastas regiones de tierras

Shani Rohatyn¹, Dan Yakir², Eyal Rotenberg²

¹Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003, Israel.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 22, 2022

Resumen

La forestación global de las tierras secas ofrece un potencial de mitigación del clima, pero el calentamiento por la reducción del albedo es significativo. Las estrategias de forestación inteligente pueden mejorar el secuestro de carbono, pero la reducción rápida de las emisiones sigue siendo crucial.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Ecología
Ciencias del medio ambiente

Sus antecedentes:

La forestación en las tierras secas globales se propone como una estrategia de mitigación del cambio climático.
Existe incertidumbre con respecto a los beneficios climáticos netos debido al calentamiento potencial por la reducción del albedo forestal.

Objetivo del estudio:

Evaluar el potencial de secuestro de carbono y el impacto climático neto de la forestación de las tierras secas a nivel mundial.
Identificar las áreas óptimas para la forestación que maximizan los efectos de enfriamiento.

Principales métodos:

Análisis espacial de alta resolución de las tierras secas globales.
Cuantificación del potencial de secuestro de carbono hasta el año 2100.
Cálculo de los efectos de albedo y del balance neto de carbono.

Principales resultados:

Aproximadamente 448 millones de hectáreas de tierras secas mundiales son adecuadas para la forestación.
El potencial total de secuestro de carbono es de 32,3 mil millones de toneladas de carbono (Gt C), con 22,6 Gt C necesarios para compensar el calentamiento del albedo.
La compensación neta de carbono es aproximadamente el 1% de los escenarios de emisiones proyectadas; centrarse en las áreas de enfriamiento neto duplica la compensación con la mitad de la tierra.

Conclusiones:

La forestación de tierras secas tiene beneficios climáticos netos limitados cuando se consideran los efectos de albedo.
La forestación dirigida en áreas con efectos netos de enfriamiento es más efectiva.
La reducción urgente y rápida de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero es esencial para mitigar el cambio climático.

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