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Redes de contacto sexual de cola pesada y epidemiología de la viruela del mono en el brote global, 2022
Akira Endo1,2,3, Hiroaki Murayama4, Sam Abbott1,2
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 22, 2022
Resumen
El brote de viruela del mono de 2022 se extendió rápidamente entre los hombres que tienen relaciones sexuales con hombres (HSH) debido a que algunas personas tienen muchas parejas. Esta estructura de red desafía los esfuerzos de contención y pone de relieve la necesidad de estrategias de prevención específicas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Epidemiología
- Modelado matemático
- Salud pública
Sus antecedentes:
- El brote de viruela del mono de 2022 en regiones no endémicas exhibió características epidemiológicas distintas, en particular su prevalencia en la comunidad de hombres que tienen relaciones sexuales con hombres (HSH).
- Los brotes anteriores de viruela del mono no mostraron los mismos patrones de crecimiento o predominio demográfico observados en 2022.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar los factores epidemiológicos detrás del crecimiento sostenido de la viruela del mono en la población de HSH.
- Para determinar si los patrones de contacto sexual pueden explicar las dinámicas de brote observadas.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó un modelo de transmisión calibrado con datos empíricos de pareja sexual.
- Analizó el impacto de una distribución de pareja sexual de cola pesada en la propagación de enfermedades.
Principales resultados:
- Una distribución de parejas sexuales de cola pesada, donde un pequeño número de individuos tiene un número desproporcionadamente grande de parejas, explica efectivamente el crecimiento sostenido de la varicela entre los HSH.
- El número básico de reproducción (R0) para la varicela dentro de la red sexual de HSH es probablemente significativamente mayor que 1, lo que indica un alto potencial de transmisión y desafíos para la contención.
Conclusiones:
- La estructura de red sexual única entre los HSH es un factor clave en la epidemiología del brote de viruela del mono de 2022.
- La contención efectiva requiere estrategias específicas de prevención, apoyo y detección temprana, especialmente para los HSH con un gran número de parejas sexuales.
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