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Los riesgos perdidos del cambio climático

James Rising1, Marco Tedesco2, Franziska Piontek3

  • 1School of Marine Science and Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA. jrising@udel.edu.

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Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Los riesgos del cambio climático son enormes pero a menudo no cuantificados. Este estudio aboga por incluir estos riesgos complejos e inciertos en las evaluaciones económicas a través de la colaboración interdisciplinaria y metodologías claras.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del medio ambiente
  • Las economías
  • Evaluación del riesgo

Sus antecedentes:

  • El cambio climático representa una inmensa amenaza para las poblaciones y las economías mundiales.
  • Muchos riesgos climáticos complejos siguen sin ser cuantificados, lo que dificulta las evaluaciones económicas y la toma de decisiones eficaces.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Abogar por la inclusión de riesgos climáticos inciertos y no cuantificados en las evaluaciones económicas.
  • Presentar una ontología de riesgos climáticos no cuantificados y sus razones subyacentes para la falta de evaluación.
  • Proponer un enfoque para integrar estos riesgos en los procesos de toma de decisiones.

Principales métodos:

  • Visión general y estructuración ontológica de los riesgos climáticos no cuantificados.
  • Identificación de las razones de la falta de una evaluación sólida (por ejemplo, brechas interdisciplinarias, incertidumbre, variaciones espacio-temporales).
  • Desarrollo de un enfoque de integración que tenga en cuenta las interdependencias y los supuestos.

Principales resultados:

  • Las razones clave identificadas para los riesgos no cuantificados: los silos disciplinarios, las variaciones de impacto, las interacciones de riesgo, la profunda incertidumbre y los riesgos desconocidos.
  • Propuso una ontología que clasifica estos riesgos no cuantificados.
  • Se describió un enfoque para integrar las evaluaciones cualitativas y cuantitativas de estos riesgos.

Conclusiones:

  • Los riesgos climáticos no cuantificados deben incorporarse a las evaluaciones económicas y a la toma de decisiones.
  • La colaboración interdisciplinaria entre las ciencias naturales y sociales es crucial.
  • Abordar la incertidumbre y emplear diversos métodos de evaluación es vital para una gestión integral del riesgo climático.