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Las emisiones de humedales y los cambios en el sumidero atmosférico explican el crecimiento del metano en 2020

Shushi Peng^1,2,3, Xin Lin⁴, Rona L Thompson⁵

¹Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China. speng@pku.edu.cn.

|December 14, 2022

Resumen

Los niveles de metano atmosférico aumentaron inesperadamente en 2020 debido al aumento de las emisiones naturales de los humedales y al debilitamiento del sumidero atmosférico. Esto pone de relieve la sensibilidad del metano al cambio climático y la necesidad de considerar las tendencias de los óxidos de nitrógeno en los esfuerzos de reducción de emisiones.

Área de la Ciencia:

Química atmosférica y ciencias del clima.
Monitoreo y análisis del medio ambiente.

Sus antecedentes:

Las concentraciones de metano atmosférico mostraron un aumento sin precedentes en 2020, alcanzando 15.1 ± 0.4 partes por billón por año.
Este aumento se produjo a pesar de las probables reducciones en las emisiones de metano causadas por el hombre durante los cierres de COVID-19.

Objetivo del estudio:

Cuantificar los cambios en las fuentes de metano y los sumideros atmosféricos en 2020 en comparación con 2019.
Identificar las principales causas de la tasa anómala de crecimiento del metano observada en 2020.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de las emisiones mundiales de metano, diferenciando entre fuentes antropogénicas, de incendios y de humedales.
Cuantificación de los cambios en el sumidero atmosférico de metano, específicamente la concentración de radicales hidroxilo (OH).
Se utilizaron modelos de inversión atmosférica para inferir las emisiones netas y las tasas de eliminación.

Principales resultados:

Las emisiones globales de metano antropogénico disminuyeron en 1,2 ± 0,1 Tg CH4 yr-1 y las emisiones de incendios en 6,5 ± 0,1 Tg CH4 yr-1.
Las emisiones de metano de las zonas húmedas aumentaron significativamente en 6,0 ± 2,3 Tg CH4 por año.
La concentración de OH en la troposfera disminuyó en un 1,6 ± 0,2%, lo que condujo a una reducción de 7,5 ± 0,8 Tg CH4 por año en la eliminación de metano.
Las emisiones netas totales aumentaron en 6,9 ± 2,1 Tg CH4 yr-1, atribuidas a un sumidero de OH inferior en un 53 ± 10% y a emisiones naturales superiores en un 47 ± 16%.

Conclusiones:

La anomalía de la tasa de crecimiento del metano en 2020 se debió principalmente a una reducción del sumidero atmosférico (OH) y al aumento de las emisiones de humedales naturales.
Las emisiones de metano de los humedales demuestran sensibilidad a climas más cálidos y húmedos, creando potencialmente un circuito de retroalimentación positiva.
Las tendencias de las emisiones de óxido de nitrógeno (NOx) deben tenerse en cuenta en las estrategias mundiales de reducción de las emisiones de metano.

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