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Las temperaturas actuales en el centro-norte de Groenlandia son las más cálidas en el último milenio
M Hörhold1, T Münch2, S Weißbach3
1Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany. maria.hoerhold@awi.de.
Nature
|January 18, 2023
Resumen
Groenlandia
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- Glaciología
- Paleoclimatología
Sus antecedentes:
- La capa de hielo de Groenlandia es crucial para el sistema climático global.
- Se observa el calentamiento costero, pero el calentamiento de la capa de hielo central sigue sin estar claro debido a los limitados datos a largo plazo.
- Las reconstrucciones de núcleos de hielo existentes carecen de la resolución y los datos recientes para identificar las señales del calentamiento global.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para crear una reconstrucción de temperatura de alta resolución para el centro y el norte de Groenlandia desde el año 1000 hasta 2011.
- Determinar si el reciente calentamiento en el centro de Groenlandia supera la variabilidad natural preindustrial.
- Investigar la influencia del calentamiento global en las regiones centrales de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia.
Principales métodos:
- El nuevo taladro sistemático de núcleos de hielo para obtener muestras de alta calidad.
- Desarrollo de una reconstrucción de la temperatura que cubre el último milenio (AD 1000 2011).
- Análisis estadístico para comparar las temperaturas recientes con la variabilidad preindustrial e identificar tendencias.
Principales resultados:
- La década más reciente en la reconstrucción muestra un calentamiento que supera la variabilidad del pasado milenio con gran certeza (P < 0,001).
- Las temperaturas recientes son 1,5 ± 0,4 ° C más cálidas que la media del siglo XX.
- El calentamiento excepcional se atribuye a la variabilidad natural superpuesta a una tendencia de calentamiento a largo plazo desde el año 1800 d.C.
Conclusiones:
- La influencia antropogénica ha alcanzado el centro y el norte de Groenlandia, indicado por un calentamiento excepcional.
- Este calentamiento está relacionado con el aumento de la escorrentía del agua de deshielo, lo que podría acelerar la pérdida de masa general de Groenlandia.
- Los hallazgos destacan la vulnerabilidad de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia al cambio climático en curso.
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