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Explosiones menos extremas y más tempranas de lagos represados por hielo desde 1900

Georg Veh¹, Natalie Lützow², Jenny Tamm²

¹Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany. georg.veh@uni-potsdam.de.

|February 15, 2023

Resumen

Las inundaciones extremas de los lagos glaciares (GLOF) han disminuido significativamente en magnitud desde 1900. Estos GLOF ahora ocurren más temprano en el año y en elevaciones más altas, con una desglaciación generalizada que potencialmente detiene la actividad futura.

Área de la Ciencia:

Glaciología
Hidrología
Ciencias del clima

Sus antecedentes:

Las fallas episódicas de los lagos represados por hielo causan catastróficas inundaciones por brote de lagos glaciales (GLOF) en regiones de alta montaña.
La estimación de la actividad histórica de GLOF es un desafío debido a las bases de datos regionales de inundaciones inconsistentes.

Objetivo del estudio:

Evaluar sistemáticamente las tendencias de la actividad GLOF, incluidos los picos de descarga, el volumen, el momento y la elevación de la fuente.
Para analizar los cambios en la actividad GLOF desde 1900 hasta 2021 en seis cadenas montañosas principales.

Principales métodos:

Compilación de 1.569 eventos GLOF de las seis principales regiones montañosas.
Análisis de las tendencias en los picos de descarga, volumen, calendario anual y elevación de la fuente.

Principales resultados:

Los flujos y volúmenes máximos de GLOF extremos han disminuido en un orden de magnitud en cinco de las seis regiones desde 1900.
Las descargas medianas por inundación han disminuido menos o se han mantenido estables.
Los GLOF ahora se originan en elevaciones más altas y ocurren aproximadamente seis semanas antes anualmente.
Los lagos individuales con estallidos repetidos muestran tendencias similares, con una correlación moderada con el adelgazamiento de los glaciares.

Conclusiones:

Si bien se espera que la actividad de GLOF continúe en el futuro cercano, la deglaciación generalizada puede detener la mayor parte de la actividad de brote para fines del siglo XXI.

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