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Diagnóstico del riesgo de desestabilización en los sumideros de carbono terrestres globales

Marcos Fernández-Martínez^1,2,3, Josep Peñuelas^4,5, Frederic Chevallier⁶

¹PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium. m.fernandez@creaf.uab.cat.

|February 22, 2023

Resumen

La absorción neta mundial de carbono (NBP) ha aumentado, pero su variabilidad está aumentando regionalmente debido al cambio climático, lo que podría desestabilizar el sumidero de carbono. La autocorrelación ha disminuido, lo que indica respuestas más rápidas del ciclo del carbono.

Área de la Ciencia:

Investigación del ciclo global del carbono
Impactos del cambio climático en los ecosistemas terrestres
Ciencias atmosféricas y biogeoquímica

Sus antecedentes:

La absorción neta mundial de carbono de la tierra (producción neta del bioma) ha aumentado en las últimas décadas.
Los cambios en la variabilidad temporal y la autocorrelación de NBP son poco conocidos, pero son cruciales para evaluar la estabilidad del sumidero de carbono.
Un aumento en la variabilidad y la autocorrelación podría indicar un sumidero de carbono terrestre desestabilizado.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar las tendencias de la absorción neta de carbono terrestre (NBP) desde 1981 hasta 2018.
Para analizar los cambios en la variabilidad temporal y la autocorrelación de NBP.
Identificar los factores clave que controlan la variabilidad de las PNB, en particular los impactos del cambio climático.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron dos modelos de inversión atmosférica para estimar el NBP global.
Analizó la amplitud del ciclo estacional de la concentración de CO2 atmosférico de nueve estaciones de monitoreo del Pacífico.
Modelos dinámicos de vegetación global incorporados para un análisis completo.

Principales resultados:

La PNB anual global y su variabilidad interdecadal aumentaron, mientras que la autocorrelación temporal disminuyó.
El análisis regional reveló patrones distintos: algunas áreas mostraron una mayor variabilidad de NBP relacionada con temperaturas más cálidas y variables, mientras que otras exhibieron NBP más fuerte y menos variable.
La riqueza de especies vegetales mostró una relación parabólica con el NBP y su variabilidad; la deposición de nitrógeno generalmente mejoró el NBP.

Conclusiones:

El aumento de la variabilidad regional de las PNB se debe principalmente al cambio climático, en particular al aumento de las temperaturas y su variabilidad.
Estos hallazgos sugieren una potencial desestabilización del sistema acoplado carbono-clima.
La disminución observada en la autocorrelación indica respuestas más rápidas del ciclo del carbono terrestre a los cambios ambientales.

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