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Reducir el reclutamiento de cárteles es la única forma de reducir la violencia en México
Rafael Prieto-Curiel1, Gian Maria Campedelli2, Alejandro Hope3
1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 21, 2023
Resumen
Los cárteles mexicanos reclutan entre 350 y 370 miembros semanalmente para mantener su tamaño a pesar de las pérdidas. El aumento del encarcelamiento puede, paradójicamente, alimentar más violencia y el crecimiento de los cárteles.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Criminología
- Sociología
- Ciencias políticas
Sus antecedentes:
- Los cárteles mexicanos experimentan un desgaste significativo de miembros debido al conflicto entre cárteles y al encarcelamiento.
- A pesar de la pérdida de miembros, la violencia perpetrada por los cárteles ha persistido e incluso aumentado en la última década.
- Comprender la resiliencia de los cárteles y su impacto en la violencia es crucial para la seguridad pública y la formulación de políticas.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar la dinámica de la variación del tamaño del cártel en México.
- Identificar los factores clave que impulsan el reclutamiento y la retención de los cárteles.
- Para analizar la relación entre el tamaño del cártel, la violencia y la incapacidad del estado.
Principales métodos:
- Utilizó una década de datos sobre homicidios, personas desaparecidas y encarcelamientos en México.
- Información incorporada sobre las interacciones y los patrones de conflicto de los cárteles.
- Desarrolló un modelo para analizar el reclutamiento, la incapacidad estatal, el conflicto y la saturación como impulsores del tamaño del cártel.
Principales resultados:
- Para el año 2022, los cárteles mexicanos comprendían entre 160.000 y 185.000 miembros, lo que los posicionaba como los principales empleadores.
- El reclutamiento semanal de 350-370 personas es necesario para que los cárteles compensen las pérdidas agregadas y eviten el colapso.
- Se encontró que el aumento de la incapacidad estatal (encarcelamiento) se correlacionaba con mayores tasas de homicidios y una mayor membresía en el cártel.
Conclusiones:
- La resiliencia del cártel se mantiene a través de un reclutamiento continuo y de gran volumen.
- Las estrategias de incapacidad del Estado pueden aumentar inadvertidamente la violencia y el tamaño del cártel.
- La reducción del reclutamiento ofrece una vía potencial para disminuir la pertenencia a los cárteles y reducir la violencia.
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