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Evidencia global del rápido crecimiento urbano en las zonas de inundación desde 1985

Jun Rentschler¹, Paolo Avner², Mattia Marconcini^3,4

¹The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. jrentschler@worldbank.org.

|October 4, 2023

Resumen

Los asentamientos humanos se están expandiendo rápidamente en zonas de inundación en todo el mundo, aumentando el riesgo de desastres. Esta tendencia amplifica la exposición a los impactos del cambio climático, en lugar de adaptarse a ellos.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del medio ambiente
Investigación sobre el cambio climático
Planificación urbana

Sus antecedentes:

Las pérdidas por desastres están aumentando a nivel mundial.
El cambio climático está cada vez más vinculado a fenómenos naturales extremos.
Los patrones de urbanización influyen significativamente en la vulnerabilidad a las crisis climáticas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para analizar la expansión global de los asentamientos humanos en las zonas de inundación desde 1985.
Cuantificar las divergencias en la exposición al peligro de inundación entre países.
Investigar el papel del desarrollo local en la amplificación del riesgo de desastres.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron datos anuales de alta resolución sobre los asentamientos humanos.
Se analizaron los patrones de crecimiento de los asentamientos en relación con las zonas de inundación.
Comparación de las tasas de expansión en zonas peligrosas frente a zonas seguras.

Principales resultados:

Los asentamientos humanos globales se han expandido continuamente en zonas de inundación desde 1985.
En muchas regiones, el crecimiento de las zonas con riesgo de inundación supera el crecimiento de las zonas no expuestas.
Asia oriental muestra una expansión particularmente rápida de los asentamientos de alto riesgo (un 60% más rápido).

Conclusiones:

Los patrones de asentamiento humano están aumentando activamente la exposición a los riesgos de inundación.
Muchas naciones están amplificando su vulnerabilidad a los shocks climáticos a través de las opciones de desarrollo.
Hay una divergencia significativa en la exposición de los países a los riesgos de inundación.

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