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La carga de la contaminación atmosférica para la salud en el Reino Unido: un estudio de modelado utilizando

Eloise A Marais¹, Karn Vohra¹, Jamie M Kelly¹

¹Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.

Lancet (London, England)

|November 24, 2023

Resumen

La contaminación atmosférica por partículas finas (PM2.5) causa más muertes prematuras de adultos en el Reino Unido de lo que se había estimado anteriormente. El objetivo de las emisiones agrícolas, una fuente clave de PM2,5, ofrece importantes beneficios para la salud pública.

Área de la Ciencia:

Salud del medio ambiente
Epidemiología
Ciencias atmosféricas

Sus antecedentes:

La exposición a largo plazo a partículas finas (PM2.5) es una carga importante para la salud mundial.
En el Reino Unido, las partículas PM2,5, en su mayor parte procedentes del amoníaco agrícola (NH3), están vinculadas a una mortalidad prematura significativa en adultos.
Las estimaciones anteriores no tenían en cuenta un riesgo supralineal recién identificado en bajas concentraciones de PM2,5.

Objetivo del estudio:

Reestimar la mortalidad prematura de adultos en el Reino Unido para 2019 utilizando modelos actualizados de riesgo para la salud.
Incorporar una relación de exposición-respuesta supralineal para las PM2,5 en bajas concentraciones.
Evaluar el impacto de las emisiones agrícolas en la mortalidad relacionada con las PM2,5.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizó el modelo GEOS-Chem para simular las concentraciones ambientales de PM2,5 en el Reino Unido.
Datos de salud de la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas del Reino Unido (ONS) y información sobre la carga mundial de enfermedades (GBD).
Se aplicó un modelo híbrido de riesgo para la salud que combina las curvas de exposición-respuesta lineal y supralineal.

Principales resultados:

Se estima que 48,625 (95% CI 45,118-52,595) muertes prematuras de adultos atribuibles a las PM2.5 en el Reino Unido en 2019.
Esto representa 15.000-20.000 muertes más de lo estimado por los modelos más antiguos.
Las personas mayores de 65 años representaron el 86% de estas muertes; el Gran Londres tuvo las cifras de mortalidad más altas.

Conclusiones:

Las PM2,5 representan un peligro mayor para los adultos del Reino Unido de lo que se pensaba anteriormente.
La curva de exposición-respuesta supralineal pone de relieve los beneficios potenciales para la salud pública derivados de las fuentes dominantes de PM2,5.
La reducción de las emisiones agrícolas, una de las principales causas de PM2.5 en el Reino Unido, es crucial para mejorar la salud pública.

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