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El año más caluroso fue incluso más caluroso de lo esperado

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|January 11, 2024

Resumen

El calor récord de 2023 fue impulsado por gases de efecto invernadero, eventos de El Niño y mejora de la calidad del aire. Estos factores se combinaron para crear un aumento de la temperatura global sin precedentes.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Ciencias atmosféricas

Sus antecedentes:

Las temperaturas globales han mostrado una tendencia al aumento a largo plazo debido a las emisiones antropogénicas.
Los patrones climáticos naturales como El Niño influyen significativamente en la variabilidad de la temperatura año tras año.

Objetivo del estudio:

Identificar y cuantificar las causas principales del calor mundial récord observado en 2023.
Evaluar las contribuciones relativas de los gases de efecto invernadero, El Niño y los cambios en la calidad del aire a la anomalía de temperatura de 2023.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los conjuntos de datos de temperatura global.
Modelado climático para simular el impacto de diferentes factores.
Análisis estadístico para atribuir cambios de temperatura.

Principales resultados:

2023 fue el año más caluroso registrado, superando significativamente los máximos anteriores.
El aumento de las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero fue el factor dominante a largo plazo.
El fenómeno de El Niño jugó un papel sustancial en la exacerbación del calor en 2023.
La reducción de la contaminación por aerosoles (aire más limpio) también contribuyó al calentamiento, especialmente en ciertas regiones.

Conclusiones:

El calor récord de 2023 es una manifestación clara del cambio climático en curso.
Una combinación de calentamiento antropogénico persistente y un fuerte evento de El Niño condujo a temperaturas extremas.
Las mejoras en la calidad del aire, aunque beneficiosas para la salud, tienen un efecto de calentamiento menor que debe tenerse en cuenta en las proyecciones climáticas.

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