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El compromiso económico del cambio climático

Maximilian Kotz^1,2, Anders Levermann^1,2, Leonie Wenz^3,4

¹Research Domain IV, Research Domain IV, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

|April 17, 2024

Resumen

La economía mundial se enfrenta a una reducción de ingresos del 19% en 26 años debido a los impactos del cambio climático, independientemente de las opciones de emisión. Estos daños climáticos superan con creces los costos de mitigación, lo que pone de relieve las necesidades urgentes de adaptación.

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Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Las economías
Ciencias del medio ambiente

Sus antecedentes:

Las proyecciones de daños por el cambio climático global a menudo se basan en los impactos a largo plazo de la temperatura promedio.
Datos empíricos recientes de más de 1.600 regiones globales durante 40 años ofrecen una nueva perspectiva.

Objetivo del estudio:

Proyectar daños económicos subnacionales por la variabilidad de la temperatura y la precipitación, incluidos los extremos.
Evaluar los impactos económicos a corto plazo independientemente de las emisiones futuras.
Para comparar los daños climáticos con los costos de mitigación.

Principales métodos:

Utilizó hallazgos empíricos recientes de más de 1.600 regiones de todo el mundo.
Se empleó un enfoque empírico para establecer un límite inferior sólido de los impactos en el crecimiento económico.
Daños proyectados basados en la temperatura y la precipitación, incluida la variabilidad diaria y los extremos.

Principales resultados:

La economía mundial está comprometida con una reducción de ingresos del 19% en 26 años, independientemente de las futuras opciones de emisiones (rango probable del 11 al 29%).
Estos daños cometidos son seis veces mayores que los costos de mitigación para limitar el calentamiento a 2°C en el corto plazo.
Se prevé que todas las regiones, excepto las latitudes muy altas, experimentarán pérdidas, siendo las mayores las de las latitudes más bajas.

Conclusiones:

Los efectos a corto plazo del cambio climático en el crecimiento económico son considerables y en gran medida predeterminados.
Los daños económicos del cambio climático superan significativamente los costos de mitigación a corto plazo.
El cambio climático afecta desproporcionadamente a las regiones de menor latitud con menores ingresos y emisiones históricas.