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Posible cambio en los controles del patrón de calentamiento de la superficie del Pacífico tropical
Masahiro Watanabe1, Sarah M Kang2, Matthew Collins3
1Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan. hiro@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
Nature
|June 12, 2024
Resumen
La comprensión de los patrones de temperatura superficial del mar del Pacífico tropical (SST) es crucial para las proyecciones de calentamiento global. Los cambios de SST en el pasado fueron impulsados por mecanismos de fortalecimiento, pero los cambios futuros probablemente serán impulsados por mecanismos de debilitamiento.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del clima
- La oceanografía
- Ciencias atmosféricas
Sus antecedentes:
- Los patrones de temperatura de la superficie del mar (SST) en el Pacífico tropical influyen significativamente en el calentamiento global y el clima regional.
- Los cambios observados en las últimas décadas, incluido el aumento del contraste zonal de SST y el fortalecimiento de la circulación de Walker, siguen siendo objeto de debate científico.
- Las proyecciones precisas del clima futuro dependen de la comprensión de los impulsores de estos cambios en los patrones de SST.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para investigar las causas de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico tropical.
- Revisar y conciliar las perspectivas energéticas y dinámicas sobre el papel del forzamiento externo.
- Proyectar cambios futuros en los mecanismos que rigen la evolución de los patrones de SST.
Principales métodos:
- Revisión de los mecanismos existentes para la respuesta forzada, categorizados por perspectivas energéticas y dinámicas.
- Análisis de las contribuciones colectivas y relativas de estas perspectivas a los cambios pasados y futuros de las SST.
- Síntesis de los hallazgos para proponer una narrativa que concilie diferentes puntos de vista.
Principales resultados:
- El estudio sugiere que los mecanismos de fortalecimiento han dominado históricamente los cambios en el patrón de SST del Pacífico tropical.
- Las proyecciones futuras indican un cambio, con mecanismos de debilitamiento que se espera que dominen.
- Se propone una conciliación de las perspectivas energéticas y dinámicas sobre el forzamiento externo.
Conclusiones:
- El forzamiento externo juega un papel crítico en la modulación de los patrones de SST del Pacífico tropical.
- Se prevé que el equilibrio entre el fortalecimiento y el debilitamiento de los mecanismos cambie en el futuro.
- Resolver las discrepancias entre los modelos y las observaciones es clave para mejorar las proyecciones climáticas.
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