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Benjamin J Henley^1,2,3, Helen V McGregor^4,5, Andrew D King^6,7

¹Environmental Futures, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia. bhenley@unimelb.edu.au.

|August 7, 2024

Resumen

Los eventos de blanqueo masivo de coral en la Gran Barrera de Coral (GBR) están relacionados con las temperaturas récord de la superficie del mar (SST) en los últimos 400 años. El cambio climático causado por el hombre ha creado una amenaza existencial para el ecosistema GBR.

Área de la Ciencia:

Biología marina
Ciencias del clima
Ecología

Sus antecedentes:

Los eventos de blanqueo masivo de coral en la Gran Barrera de Coral (GBR) entre 2016 y 2024 fueron impulsados por las elevadas temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST).
El contexto térmico a largo plazo de las temperaturas recientes de GBR sigue sin estar claro, lo que afecta a las evaluaciones de amenazas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para reconstruir y analizar las anomalías térmicas a largo plazo en la región del Mar de Coral.
Atribuir las causas de los recientes eventos de calor extremo y el blanqueamiento de los corales en el GBR.
Evaluar el estado actual y futuro de la amenaza del ecosistema GBR bajo el cambio climático.

Principales métodos:

Reconstrucción paleoclimática de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar de Coral en los últimos 400 años.
Análisis de los datos recientes de SST (2016-2024) y comparación con las temperaturas reconstruidas.
Análisis de modelos climáticos para atribuir las tendencias de calentamiento a la influencia humana.

Principales resultados:

Los extremos de calor del Mar de Coral en enero-marzo de 2024, 2017 y 2020 fueron los más cálidos en 400 años.
Los eventos de calor recientes (2016, 2004, 2022) también superaron los umbrales de temperatura históricos.
La influencia humana en el sistema climático se confirma como el motor del reciente calentamiento rápido.

Conclusiones:

La amenaza existencial para el ecosistema GBR por el cambio climático antropogénico ahora se ha realizado.
Sin una intervención urgente, el GBR se enfrenta a un blanqueo de coral casi anual, lo que amenaza la biodiversidad y los servicios del ecosistema.
Las continuas tendencias de calentamiento ponen en peligro la función ecológica y el valor universal del GBR.

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