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Políticas climáticas que lograron importantes reducciones de emisiones: pruebas mundiales de dos décadas

Annika Stechemesser^1,2,3, Nicolas Koch^1,2,4, Ebba Mark^5,6,7

¹Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 22, 2024

Resumen

Este estudio evaluó 1500 políticas climáticas a nivel mundial para encontrar combinaciones efectivas para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Identificó 63 intervenciones exitosas, haciendo hincapié en el papel de los instrumentos basados en los precios en las combinaciones de políticas para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del medio ambiente
Análisis de la política climática
Las economías

Sus antecedentes:

El Acuerdo de París requiere reducciones significativas de emisiones.
Existen lagunas de conocimiento con respecto a las políticas climáticas efectivas a escala.
Se necesita una evaluación sistemática de las políticas pasadas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Identificar combinaciones exitosas de políticas climáticas para la reducción de emisiones a gran escala.
Evaluar las 1500 políticas climáticas implementadas a nivel mundial.
Informar el diseño de futuras políticas climáticas.

Principales métodos:

Evaluación global y sistemática ex post de las políticas climáticas (1998-2022).
Integración de una base de datos completa sobre la política climática.
Extensión basada en el aprendizaje automático del enfoque de diferencia en diferencias.

Principales resultados:

Se identificaron 63 intervenciones políticas exitosas en 41 países.
Reducciones cuantificadas de las emisiones totales entre 0,6 y 1,8 mil millones de toneladas métricas de CO2.
Combinaciones de políticas eficaces y poco estudiadas.

Conclusiones:

Los instrumentos basados en los precios son cruciales en las combinaciones de políticas bien diseñadas.
Las combinaciones efectivas de políticas pueden lograr reducciones sustanciales de emisiones.
Cerrar la brecha de emisiones requiere esfuerzos políticos específicos.

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