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Las emisiones de carbono de los incendios forestales canadienses de 2023
Brendan Byrne1, Junjie Liu2,3, Kevin W Bowman2,4
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. brendan.k.byrne@jpl.nasa.gov.
Nature
|August 28, 2024
Resumen
Los incendios forestales canadienses de 2023 liberaron emisiones masivas de carbono, comparables a las de las grandes naciones. El clima cálido y seco impulsó la propagación del fuego, y el calentamiento futuro probablemente aumentará la actividad del fuego.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del medio ambiente
- Ciencias del clima
- Química de la atmósfera
Sus antecedentes:
- Los incendios forestales canadienses de 2023 no tuvieron precedentes en escala e intensidad.
- El área quemada fue más de siete veces el promedio de las cuatro décadas anteriores.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para cuantificar las emisiones de carbono de los incendios forestales canadienses de 2023.
- Identificar las causas de la propagación del fuego y evaluar los impactos climáticos futuros.
Principales métodos:
- Modelado inverso de las observaciones de monóxido de carbono por satélite.
- Análisis de los datos meteorológicos para identificar a los conductores de incendios.
Principales resultados:
- Las emisiones de carbono se estiman en 647 TgC (570727 TgC).
- Emisiones comparables a la producción anual de combustibles fósiles de las principales naciones.
- El clima cálido y seco generalizado, exacerbado por el calor y la sequedad récord en 2023, fue el principal impulsor de la propagación de incendios.
Conclusiones:
- Las temperaturas proyectadas para la década de 2050, incluso bajo mitigación moderada, podrían ser típicas para las condiciones extremas actuales.
- El aumento de la actividad de los incendios y la reducción de la absorción de carbono amenazan el papel de los bosques canadienses como sumideros de carbono.
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