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Los controles de las corrientes de chorro en el clima y la agricultura europeos desde 1300 EC
Guobao Xu1,2,3, Ellie Broadman2, Isabel Dorado-Liñán4
1Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China.
Nature
|September 25, 2024
Resumen
La corriente en chorro del verano europeo
Área de la Ciencia:
- Paleoclimatología
- Dinámica del clima
- La historia del clima en Europa
Sus antecedentes:
- La corriente en chorro influye significativamente en la variabilidad climática del hemisferio norte.
- La posición de la corriente en chorro de verano en el sector del Atlántico Norte-Europa (EU JSL) afecta a los patrones climáticos regionales, pero su variabilidad e impactos a largo plazo son poco conocidos.
- La comprensión de la variabilidad de la JSL preindustrial de la UE es crucial para evaluar los riesgos climáticos futuros.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para reconstruir la variabilidad interanual del verano de la UE JSL desde 1300 hasta 2004 CE.
- Investigar los impactos de la variabilidad de la JSL de la UE en los fenómenos climáticos extremos y los acontecimientos sociales del pasado.
- Proporcionar información sobre la dinámica climática a largo plazo y sus consecuencias sociales.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron tres registros europeos de anillos de árboles sensibles a la temperatura para reconstruir la variabilidad del JSL de la UE durante el verano.
- Se han comparado los datos reconstituidos de la JSL de la UE con registros históricos independientes (cosecha de uva, precios de los granos, plagas, mortalidad).
- Se analizaron los impactos biofísicos, económicos y demográficos asociados con las variaciones anteriores de la JSL de la UE.
Principales resultados:
- Se ha desarrollado una reconstrucción robusta de la variabilidad de la JSL de verano de la UE desde 1300-2004 EC (R2 = 38,5%).
- Se identificaron extremos climáticos de verano contrastantes vinculados a la variabilidad de la JSL de la UE desde 1300 EC.
- Impactos biofísicos, económicos y demográficos significativos documentados, incluidos los incendios forestales y las epidemias, correlacionados con los desplazamientos de la JSL de la UE.
Conclusiones:
- La variabilidad a largo plazo de la JSL de la UE ha provocado importantes fenómenos climáticos extremos e impactos sociales en Europa durante siglos.
- Los vínculos históricos entre el clima y la sociedad asociados con la corriente en chorro proporcionan una base para comprender los riesgos futuros.
- Teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad de la JSL de la UE, es esencial para evaluar los riesgos climáticos futuros amplificados, especialmente con los cambios proyectados en el comportamiento de las corrientes en chorro.
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